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Model picks & player props
Richmond Tigers
VS
Essendon Bombers

Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:10AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Fri 23 May 2025, 9:40AM
8
Game markets graded
7
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 166.5 Total Points -112

The model graded 15 markets for Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $189 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 23 May 2025, 9:40AM at MCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win94.8%
The price says52.9%
Best price-112
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Points Under 166.5 High95% chance -112
Total Points High94% chance —
Spread High76% chance —
Moneyline Lean45% chance —
Spread High61% chance —
Disposals × 5 props Highup to 87% —
Goals × 2 props Highup to 88% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
166.5
-112
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Richmond TigersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Richmond TigersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jye Caldwell Essendon Disposals
Jayden Short Richmond Disposals
Sam Durham Essendon Disposals
Andrew McGrath Essendon Disposals
Rhyan Mansell Richmond Goals

+ 7 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Richmond Tigers @ Essendon Bombers — what the model found

Our model graded 15 betting markets for Richmond Tigers at Essendon Bombers — 8 on the game itself and 7 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded
7
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 15 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 14 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Tigers vs Bombers, or as Bombers vs Tigers. The most recent game between them was Friday 23 May 2025 at MCG. The model has generated 8 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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