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Model picks & player props
Richmond Tigers
VS
Carlton Blues

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:11PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Thu 12 Mar 2026, 8:30AM
6
Game Picks
15
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Richmond Tigers 21.5 (Spread)
For Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues (AFL), model win probability 64.4%, fair odds 1.55, book price -112, model edge +11.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 12 Mar 2026, 8:30AM at MCG.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Richmond Tigers
18.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Richmond TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Richmond TigersHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Richmond TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Seth Campbell Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Patrick Cripps Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jayden Short Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jonty Faull Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Harry McKay Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Richmond Tigers @ Carlton Blues — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Sam Lalor. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers stats and odds.</p>

Sam Lalor (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between Carlton and Richmond, Sam Lalor stands out as a prime candidate to light up the scoreboard. Despite a slightly modest average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games, Lalor has been a key figure in the Tigers' attacking play, consistently getting his shots on goal and being involved in the scoring action with an average of 2.6 score involvements in those matches. Facing Carlton, a team he's averaged 2 goals against in his last five matchups, Lalor's goal-scoring prowess is poised to shine through. While his goal accuracy may hover around 40%, the sheer volume of shots he generates, coupled with his ability to impact the game inside 50, suggests he's primed to split the middle at least once. Betting on Lalor to go Over 0.5 goals feels like a smart play given his historical performance and current form.

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Brodie Kemp's recent form, it's clear he's primed to snag a goal in the upcoming clash against Richmond at the MCG. Over his last five home games, Kemp has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1.4 goals per game. With an impressive 46.7% goal accuracy and averaging 2.2 shots at goal, he's been a key figure in Carlton's attacking play. In fact, his score involvements have been solid at 4 per game, indicating he's heavily involved in setting up scoring opportunities. Facing Richmond, against whom he's previously averaged 0.3 goals, Kemp will be eager to improve on that record. With his recent form and goal-scoring prowess, backing Kemp to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart bet for this game.

George Hewett (Carlton) Over 24.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to midfield maestros, George Hewett of the Carlton Blues is a prime candidate to light up the MCG. Hewett has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 25.6 disposals in his last five home games. His ability to find the footy is unmatched, with a knack for contested possessions (13.8 avg) and efficient ball use (73.4% disposal efficiency avg). Facing the Richmond Tigers, Hewett has historically elevated his game, averaging 24 disposals in his last five matchups against them. With a current hit rate of 13 out of 15 at home and an overall hit rate of 14 out of 20, Hewett is in top form to surpass the 24.5 disposals line. Expect him to weave through traffic, link up play, and pile up possessions to help drive the Blues to victory.

George Hewett (Carlton) Over 22.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why George Hewett is our go-to guy for the 'Disposals Over' bet in the upcoming clash between the Carlton Blues and Richmond Tigers at the legendary MCG. Hewett has been a possession machine in his last five home games, averaging a whopping 25.6 disposals per match. His recent form against Richmond has been solid too, with an average of 24 disposals per game. Plus, his overall disposal average over the last five games sits at a stellar 29.8. Considering Hewett's consistency in contested possessions, disposal efficiency at 73.4%, and ability to cover ground with an average of 232.6 meters gained, he's primed to hit that Over 22.5 mark against the Tigers. With Hewett's recent home game hit rate at 13/15, the smart money is on him to rack up the touches and help you snag a win on this player prop bet.

Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between Carlton and Richmond, Rhyan Mansell stands out as a prime candidate to light up the scoreboard. Over his last five away games, Mansell has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1.6 goals per game. With an impressive goal accuracy of 66.7% in away matches, he knows how to make his shots count. Mansell's ability to impact the game doesn't stop at goal-scoring. Averaging 2.8 inside 50s and 5.2 score involvements in his recent away performances, he's a crucial link in Richmond's attacking chain. With a current hit streak of 4 games and a stellar hit rate of 4/4, Mansell is in red-hot form and poised to continue his scoring spree against Carlton. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals is a smart move backed by solid data and recent performance trends.

George Hewett (Carlton) Over 23.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, George Hewett is a standout choice for the 'Disposals Over' market against Richmond. Hewett has been a midfield maestro in his last five home games, averaging a stellar 25.6 disposals, well above the set line of 23.5. His ability to impact the game is undeniable, with solid numbers in contested possessions (13.8) and handballs (16.2), showcasing his playmaking prowess. Additionally, Hewett's efficiency at home (73.4%) and knack for gaining significant meters (232.6 average) make him a reliable asset in Carlton's midfield rotation. Facing Richmond, a team against whom he has historically performed well, Hewett is poised to continue his dominance and surpass the disposal line. Backing Hewett to shine in front of the home crowd at the MCG is a smart bet with a high probability of success.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 12 March 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 6 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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