Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Napheesa Collier is Over 2.5 on Assists.
On Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 55%, edge +16.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current WNBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 19, 3:00AM UTC
WNBA
Napheesa Collier
WNBA
Latest Model Pick
Assists
Over 2.5
-122 (1.82) · $100→$182
+16.5% Edge
Minnesota Lynx
@
Golden State Valkyries
Chase Center, Golden State · Indoor
Thu 20 Aug, 2:10AM
The recordWhen our formula calls wnba spread calls: 603 of 772 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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How often this wins
71 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 71.4% · the book's price implies 54.9% · gap +16.5%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Assists | 71.4% | — | 54.9% | 1.94 | +16.5% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 1/3 |
| Last 10 games | 1/3 |
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Napheesa Collier Over 2.5 Assists (-122)
Odds available at betonlineag at time of publishing Golden State Valkyries play Minnesota Lynx in the WNBA on Thursday 20 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Napheesa Collier Over 2.5 Assists. That is a player assists bet. It was priced at -122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.20 if it lands. The game is at Chase Center in Golden State. Our model expects Napheesa Collier to finish with about 3.4 assists. The line for this one is 2.5. Our number sits above that line. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite.
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Overall Hit Rate (22 picks)
63.6%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Napheesa Collier is tracked by the Bet Better model for WNBA player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 63.6% on tracked Napheesa Collier picks. The latest model pick for Napheesa Collier is Over 2.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.5% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Lynx vs Golden State Valkyries on Thursday 20 August at Chase Center, Golden State. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your WNBA betting strategy.
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