On Sunday 6 September 2026, Venezia play Fiorentina in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +3.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +3.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Venezia prepares to host Fiorentina, the recent form paints a stark picture. Venezia has struggled significantly, with just one win in their last five outings, averaging a meager 0.8 goals per game while conceding 2.2. Their xG stats are equally troubling, showing no real threat in attack. Conversely, Fiorentina, despite their own ups and downs, possesses a more balanced record. They’ve managed to score consistently, and their attacking prowess, reflected in an average of 13.8 shots per game, suggests they can exploit Venezia's defensive frailties. Considering Fiorentina's historical edge over Venezia—having won two of their last five encounters—and the weight of current form, backing Fiorentina with a handicap of 3.5 feels like a smart move. They’re poised to capitalize on Venezia's vulnerabilities and secure a decisive victory. Expect a comfortable win for the visitors in this Serie A clash.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +2.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As we gear up for Venezia’s clash against Fiorentina, it’s hard to overlook the trends at play. Venezia has struggled at home, with just one win in their last five matches, averaging a paltry 0.8 goals while conceding 2.2. Their xG stats show zero creativity lately, which speaks volumes about their attacking woes. In contrast, Fiorentina has shown resilience despite mixed results. With a slightly better away record and an attack that averages 1.6 goals per game over their last five, they’re poised to capitalize on Venezia’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Viola’s ability to generate chances, paired with Venezia's struggles to keep it tight at the back, leans heavily toward a Fiorentina victory. Betting on Fiorentina to win by at least 2.5 goals feels like a savvy move, given the current form and stats. Expect them to assert dominance in this matchup!
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +1.5 Goal Handicap (-833)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As we gear up for this clash between Venezia and Fiorentina, the trends heavily favor the visitors. Fiorentina’s recent form has shown a bit of resilience, with their attacking stats improving despite inconsistent results. While both teams have struggled to find the net, Fiorentina’s away record hints at potential; they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last five away matches. On the other hand, Venezia has been defensively shaky, conceding an alarming 2.2 goals per game in their last five outings. Their inability to convert chances—averaging just 0.8 goals while facing a barrage of shots—paints a grim picture. With Fiorentina boasting a significantly better xG and being able to edge out Venezia in past meetings, backing them with a -1.5 handicap looks like a savvy play, especially when considering their overall quality and past success against this opponent.
That is how our model reads Venezia v Fiorentina. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article