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Model picks & player props
MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 1:40 PM ET
Seattle Mariners
VS
Cleveland Guardians

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 20 markets for Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians and backs Seattle Mariners -2.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $355.

20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Seattle Mariners
to win by 3+ runs
Seattle Mariners -2.5 Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$35.50Best price+255
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win44.1%
The price says28.2%

The model graded 20 markets for Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $355 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 1:40 PM ET at Progressive Field.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Seattle Mariners -2.5 Lean44% chance +255
Spread Members only Lean54% chance Members
Moneyline Members only High64% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Lean60% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians last met on Sun 28 Jun 2026: Cleveland Guardians won 6-5. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Seattle Mariners
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,149+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Seattle Mariners

  • Josh Naylor 1BOut
  • Cal Raleigh COut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Kade Anderson SPDay-to-day
  • Andres Munoz RPOut
  • Brock Rodden SSOut
  • Nick Davila RPOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Brennen Davis CFOut
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Emerson Hancock SPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Cleveland Guardians

  • Colin Holderman RPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Andrew Walters RPOut

Probable pitcher

Gavin Williams SP
Availability updated Oct 11, 12:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA3.6Home L54-1vs Seattle Mariners L51-4

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA3.6Home L54-1vs Seattle Mariners L51-4

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle MarinersNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
4.9runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA3.6Home L54-1vs Seattle Mariners L51-4

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5 games; Seattle Mariners have won 3 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–0CHWHome
W9–5CHWAway
W9–3CHWAway
L3–4CHWHome
L0–3CHWHome
Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–4LAAHome
W7–3LAAHome
L5–7LAAHome
L4–6LAAHome
W6–5HOUHome

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cleveland Guardians are scoring 2.2 runs per game (2-3) while Seattle Mariners are at 2.0 (2-3); Cleveland Guardians pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for Seattle Mariners.

2.2
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
2.0
Seattle Mariners runs/G
Last 5 gamesCleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners
Runs / game2.22.0
Hits / game5.04.4
Home runs / game0.20.4
Walks drawn / game1.42.6
Batter K / game4.65.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.43.0
Pitching K / game3.43.8
Walks allowed / game2.20.4
L5 record2-32-3

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: Cleveland Guardians won 4, Seattle Mariners won 5.

DateCleveland GuardiansSeattle MarinersWinner
Jun 2865Cleveland Guardians
Jun 2743Cleveland Guardians
Jun 2613Seattle Mariners
Mar 2965Cleveland Guardians
Mar 2908Seattle Mariners
Mar 2815Seattle Mariners
Mar 2764Cleveland Guardians
Mar 21820Seattle Mariners
Feb 2678Seattle Mariners

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Colin Holderman RPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Andrew Walters RPOUT
Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Josh Naylor 1BOUT
Cal Raleigh COUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Kade Anderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andres Munoz RPOUT
Brock Rodden SSOUT
Nick Davila RPOUT
Matt Brash RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Cleveland Guardians playing Seattle Mariners. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners stats and odds.

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners : Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+200)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mariners vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Mariners. The most recent game between them was Sunday 28 June 2026 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians head-to-head record

Final scores · 34 meetings on record
Cleveland Guardians 19–15 across the last 34 meetings · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 28 Jun 2026, Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians: the Guardians won 6-5.

DateGameScoreWinner
28 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians6–5Cleveland Guardians
27 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians4–3Cleveland Guardians
26 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians1–3Seattle Mariners
29 Mar 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners5–6Cleveland Guardians
28 Mar 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners5–1Seattle Mariners
27 Mar 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners4–6Cleveland Guardians
26 Mar 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners4–6Cleveland Guardians
21 Mar 2026Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians8–20Seattle Mariners
20 Mar 2026Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians8–20Seattle Mariners
26 Feb 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners8–7Seattle Mariners

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 34 meetings on file.

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