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Model picks & player props
MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Mon 18 Aug 2025, 6:40 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

0
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Player props & full board
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Dylan Cease SPOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Rudy Martin Jr. RFOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Oneil Cruz CFDay-to-day
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
Availability updated Sep 27, 5:16PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jared Triolo PIT Batter - Stolen Bases
Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT Batter - Stolen Bases
Kevin Gausman TOR Pitcher - Strikeouts
Tommy Pham PIT Batter - Stolen Bases
George Springer TOR Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
4.1runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates — 0 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 2 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2DETAway
L3–4DETAway
L7–8DETAway
W2–1STLHome
L1–5STLHome
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–1CINHome
L1–5CINHome
W6–5CINHome
L2–4BALAway
L2–4BALAway

Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 2, Toronto Blue Jays won 3.

DatePittsburgh PiratesToronto Blue JaysWinner
May 2441Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2325Toronto Blue Jays
May 2226Toronto Blue Jays
Mar 2183Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 629Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Oneil Cruz CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Dylan Cease SPOUT
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Rudy Martin Jr. RFOUT
Cody Ponce SPOUT
Patrick Corbin SPOUT
Jonatan Clase LFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Kevin Gausman to achieve over 2.5 strikeouts is statistically sound. Gausman's recent performance data supports this, with averages over the last five games showing that he consistently exceeds the 2.5 strikeouts line. His overall average is 5.2 strikeouts per game, and even when playing away, his average remains high at 5.4. This indicates that his performance is not significantly affected by the game location. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he spends enough time on the mound to achieve the required strikeouts. Furthermore, Gausman is on a hit streak, both overall and away, which demonstrates that he is currently in good form. Therefore, based on Gausman's recent averages and current form, the bet for him to achieve over 2.5 strikeouts is a strong choice.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Monday 18 August 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Toronto Blue Jays 14–9 across the last 24 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 8.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 24 May 2026, Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays: the Pirates won 4-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
24 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays1–4Pittsburgh Pirates
23 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays5–2Toronto Blue Jays
22 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays6–2Toronto Blue Jays
21 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–3Pittsburgh Pirates
6 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays9–2Toronto Blue Jays
20 Aug 2025Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–1Pittsburgh Pirates
19 Aug 2025Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–7Toronto Blue Jays
18 Aug 2025Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–2Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Mar 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays2–1Toronto Blue Jays
5 Mar 2025Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates7–6Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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