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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tommy Pham is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 91%, for a model edge of +3.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Tommy Pham

PIT

+3.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -1000 (1.10)
+3.2% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Thu 4 Sep, 10:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.1%
Implied Probability
90.9%
Model Edge
+3.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases94.1%—90.9%1.06+3.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Tommy Pham (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Tommy Pham for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is statistically sound. Pham's recent performance data shows no stolen bases in the last five games overall, at home, or against the Dodgers. This trend is consistent, with zero caught stealing instances in these same scenarios. Despite a commendable overall hit streak, his performance doesn't translate into successful base stealing. Even his home hit streak, which stands at three, hasn't resulted in any stolen bases. Hence, the bet is a good choice as it aligns with Pham's recent performance trends, suggesting a low probability of him stealing a base in the upcoming game against the Dodgers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.570%
O 1.530%

Tommy Pham MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%

Tommy Pham MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Tommy Pham MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2070%

Tommy Pham MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.520%

Tommy Pham MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10

Tommy Pham MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tommy Pham (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tommy Pham is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday 4 September at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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