On Saturday 5 September 2026, Parma play Monza in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Parma vs Monza: Over 3.5 Total Corners, priced at -5000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Parma vs Monza: Over 3.5 Total Corners (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
When Parma hosts Monza, the expectation for corners to exceed 3.5 seems highly reasonable. Both teams have struggled to convert their attacks into goals, highlighted by Parma averaging just 0.6 goals over their last five matches, while Monza isn’t much better at 1.2. However, their lack of finishing prowess has led to a flurry of corner kicks. Parma averages a hefty 11.6 shots per game at home, generating around 1.2 corners, while Monza, despite recent woes, manages about 2.4 corners away. Adding to this, their last five encounters have often prompted frantic attacking play, resulting in corner counts stacking up. The defensive frailties on both sides mean we can expect frantic play leading to more corners, making the 'Over 3.5' market a compelling play. With the teams’ recent trends leaning towards corner-heavy matches, this bet has all the makings of a winner.
Parma vs Monza: Parma +2.5 Goal Handicap (-10000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Parma prepares to take on Monza, recent form suggests a compelling edge for the home side. While Parma's overall record isn't stellar, their home performances show resilience, particularly with a 2-1-2 record in their last five at home. Monza, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, posting just a single win in their last five outings and averaging a mere 0.6 goals per game away from home. The xG numbers tell a similar story; neither team has been prolific lately, but Parma's ability to create more scoring opportunities at home—averaging nearly 12 shots per game—gives them a slight advantage. With Monza conceding an average of 2.6 goals in away matches, betting on Parma to cover a handicap of 2.5 seems like a savvy move given their home advantage and Monza’s struggles. Expect the home crowd to lift Parma to a crucial victory.
Parma vs Monza: Over 4.5 Total Corners (-1429)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
When Parma hosts Monza, expect a lively match that could easily lead to plenty of corners. Both teams have struggled offensively lately, with Parma averaging just 0.6 goals per game over their last five, and Monza a bit better at 1.2. However, their defensive shortcomings are likely to spark corners; Parma’s last home games have seen them concede an average of 1.4 goals, while Monza's away performances yield a similar story with opponents scoring 2.6 on average. With Parma's aggressive playstyle, they’ve been racking up approximately 11.6 shots per game at home, coupled with a solid average of 1.2 corners. Monza’s away stats also support the notion, averaging around 2.4 corners. Given both teams' tendencies to push forward and the potential for broken plays, betting on over 4.5 corners seems not just promising, but a sound strategy for this matchup.
That is how our model reads Parma v Monza. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article