Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Terry McLaurin is Under 4.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 60%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 2, 8:43PM UTC
NFL
Terry McLaurin
WAS
Terry McLaurin has one live pick today: Receptions Under 4.5 that pays $168 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions
Under 4.5
-147 (1.68) · $100→$168
Value call
Indianapolis Colts
@
Washington Commanders
Washington · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 1:30PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: 226 of 421 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
McLaurin (hamstring) was added to the injury report Friday and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports.
updated Oct 2, 5:06PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
57 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 57.1% · before adjusting for past results 75.7% · the book's price implies 59.5% · gap -2.4%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions | 75.7% | 57.1% | 59.5% | 1.78 | +16.1% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Terry McLaurin (WAS) Under 4.5 Receptions (-147)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Terry McLaurin (WAS) Under 4.5 Receptions. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Terry McLaurin's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions 4.5
Questionable
Terry McLaurin's receptions line is 4.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5
Questionable
Terry McLaurin's receiving yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5
Questionable
Terry McLaurin's receiving yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 19.5
Questionable
Terry McLaurin's receiving yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Questionable
Terry McLaurin's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards 55.5
Questionable
Terry McLaurin's receiving yards line is 55.5.
Anytime TD
+250 best over price · 13 booksQuestionable
Terry McLaurin's anytime td line is posted, best over price +250 across 13 books.
Receiving Yards 50.5
Questionable
Terry McLaurin's receiving yards line is 50.5.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Indianapolis ColtsU 50.5 -114 50.5posted line · receiving yds
Terry McLaurin has a live NFL receiving yards market for Indianapolis Colts: under 50.5 receiving yds priced at -114.
ReceptionsNext game · Indianapolis ColtsU 4.5 -161 4.5posted line · receptions
Terry McLaurin has a live NFL receptions market for Indianapolis Colts: under 4.5 receptions priced at -161.
Anytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
45%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7
Terry McLaurin's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 45%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 27 Sep 26 |
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 27 Sep 26 |
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders |
Receiving Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Terry McLaurin (WAS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Terry McLaurin is Under 4.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.1% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders on Sunday 4 October at Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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