Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeVonta Smith is Over 59.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 80%, the price says 62%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 4:25AM UTC
NFL
DeVonta Smith
PHI
DeVonta Smith has one live pick today: Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 59.5 that pays $162 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt)
Over 59.5
-161 (1.62) · $100→$162
Value call
Washington Commanders
@
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Smith caught three of six targets for 53 yards in a 24-22 Week 1 victory against the Commanders on Sunday.
updated Sep 14, 12:13AM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
76.0 Receiving Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 80.3% · before adjusting for past results 80.3% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap +18.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receiving Yards (Alt) | 80.3% | 80.3% | 61.7% | 1.62 | +18.6% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
DeVonta Smith (PHI) Over 59.5 Player reception yds alternate (-161)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Philadelphia Eagles play Washington Commanders in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is DeVonta Smith (PHI) Over 59.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -161 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2
DeVonta Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions111 lines trackedNo line posted 5.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–11.5model over60%tips tracked111
DeVonta Smith's NFL receptions prop has been priced 111 times, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards101 lines trackedNo line posted 66.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–79.5model over67%tips tracked101
DeVonta Smith's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 101 times, typically around a 66.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
39.5 |
Over |
-435 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
29.5 |
Over |
-909 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
24.5 |
Over |
-909 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.
Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime
DeVonta Smith (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeVonta Smith is Over 59.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.6% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 13 September at Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.