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NFL

DeVonta Smith

PHI

Value call

DeVonta Smith has one live pick today: under 68.5 receiving yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
55 in 100
Predicted
58.9 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 54.5% · before adjusting for past results 69.8% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +1.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
DeVonta Smith
under 68.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 68.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 55 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeVonta Smith is Under 68.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 9:39PM UTC
OUT
Smith (hamstring) is doing rehab work on a side field at Friday's practice, EJ Smith of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
updated Oct 9, 3:34PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards69.8%54.5%53.2%1.98+16.6%

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AI Analysis

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DeVonta Smith (PHI) Under 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Philadelphia Eagles play Los Angeles Rams in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is DeVonta Smith (PHI) Under 68.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2

DeVonta Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards107 lines trackedNo line posted
66.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–79.5model over67%tips tracked107

DeVonta Smith's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 107 times, typically around a 66.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions111 lines trackedNo line posted
5.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–11.5model over60%tips tracked111

DeVonta Smith's NFL receptions prop has been priced 111 times, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Sep 26 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5 Over -370 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
13 Sep 26 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
13 Sep 26 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards — — — Pending
13 Sep 26 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
13 Sep 26 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

DeVonta Smith (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeVonta Smith is Under 68.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.6% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 4 October at Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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