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NFL

DeVonta Smith

PHI

Value call

DeVonta Smith has one live pick today: under 6.5 receptions that pays $165 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
4.8 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.3% · before adjusting for past results 79.7% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap -1.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia · Indoor
Mon 26 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
DeVonta Smith
under 6.5 receptions
Receptions Under 6.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
Value call
LEANWins about 59 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.50 Odds-154
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for DeVonta Smith is Under 6.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 2:05AM UTC
OUT
Smith (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday night's game against the Commanders.
updated Oct 30, 8:17PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions79.7%59.3%60.6%1.76+19.1%

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AI Analysis

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys: DeVonta Smith Under 6.5 Receptions (-154)

Odds correct at time of publishing

DeVonta Smith has been doing well lately, but the Eagles have a tough matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas has a solid defense that can make it hard for wide receivers to rack up catches. With Smith likely facing some strong coverage, it's tough to see him getting more than 6 receptions in this game. Our numbers think betting on him to have under 6.5 receptions is a strong choice. One big risk is that the game could be close, which might lead to more passes overall. Still, with the way Dallas is playing defensively, it feels like a smart pick to keep Smith under that number.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2

DeVonta Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards132 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–79.5model over98%tips tracked132

DeVonta Smith's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 132 times, typically around a 24.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions114 lines trackedNo line posted
5.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–11.5model over60%tips tracked114

DeVonta Smith's NFL receptions prop has been priced 114 times, typically around a 5.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does DeVonta Smith average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Oct 26 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) 24.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) 29.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
18 Oct 26 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
18 Oct 26 Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Receptions — — — Pending

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About This Player

DeVonta Smith (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for DeVonta Smith is Under 6.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.1% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles on Monday 26 October at Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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