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NFL

Marcus Mariota

WAS

Value call

Marcus Mariota has one live pick today: under 213.5 passing yards that pays $190 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
63 in 100
Predicted
196.4 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 63.4% · before adjusting for past results 72.5% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +10.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Washington · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 9:30 AM ET
Marcus Mariota
under 213.5 passing yards
Passing Yards Under 213.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
Value call
HIGHWins about 63 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.00 Odds-111
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Mariota is Under 213.5 on Passing Yards.
On Passing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 63%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:26PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$20,973 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
DOUBTFUL
doubtful
updated Oct 20, 4:10PM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards72.5%63.4%52.6%2.01+19.8%

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AI Analysis

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Marcus Mariota (WAS) Under 213.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Marcus Mariota (WAS) Under 213.5 Passing Yards. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Passing Yards65 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range99.5–213.5model over90%tips tracked65

Marcus Mariota's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 65 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Passing Yards 213.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Passing Yards 212.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Passing Yards 211.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Passing Yards — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Interceptions Thrown — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Marcus Mariota (WAS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Mariota is Under 213.5 on Passing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.8% on this pick. Their next game is Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders on Sunday 4 October at Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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