Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Hurts is Under 29.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 66%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:05PM UTC
NFL
Jalen Hurts
PHI
Jalen Hurts has one live pick today: Rushing Yards Under 29.5 that pays $193 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards
Under 29.5
-108 (1.93) · $100→$193
Value call
Washington Commanders
@
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Hurts completed 26 of 37 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions in Sunday's 24-20 win over Tennessee. He added 16 yards on five carries.
updated Sep 20, 11:12PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
25.9 Rushing Yards
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 66.0% · before adjusting for past results 66.0% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +14.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards | 66.0% | 66.0% | 51.8% | 2.04 | +14.2% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
Jalen Hurts (PHI) Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Philadelphia Eagles play Washington Commanders in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jalen Hurts (PHI) Under 29.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Overall Hit Rate (21 picks)
57.1%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1
Jalen Hurts's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Passing Yards77 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–214.5model over97%tips tracked77
Jalen Hurts's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 77 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards20 lines trackedNo line posted 28.5typical line · rushing yds
line range27.5–30.5tips tracked20
Jalen Hurts's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 20 times, typically around a 28.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Rushing Yards |
29.5 |
Under |
-108 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Rushing Yards |
28.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Rushing Attempts |
6.5 |
Under |
+111 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Passing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles |
Passing Yards |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.
Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime
Jalen Hurts (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 57.1% on tracked Jalen Hurts picks. The latest model pick for Jalen Hurts is Under 29.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.2% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 13 September at Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.