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NFL

Cole Kmet

CHI

Value call

Cole Kmet has one live pick today: over 1.5 receptions that pays $262 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
52 in 100
Predicted
1.9 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.4% · the book's price implies 38.2% · gap +14.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta · Indoor
Sun 18 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Cole Kmet
over 1.5 receptions
Receptions Over 1.5 +162 (2.62) · $100→$262
Value call
LEANWins about 52 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$26.20 Odds+162
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Cole Kmet is Over 1.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 52%, the price says 38%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 1:47AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions52.4%—38.2%2.81+14.2%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

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AI Analysis

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Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet Over 1.5 Receptions (+162)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Cole Kmet has been a solid target for the Chicago Bears, and he's got a good chance to grab more than 1.5 receptions against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons' defense has been really tough on tight ends, allowing the fewest touchdowns in the league last season. However, they still face a lot of pressure, and Kmet should find some space to make plays. The matchup is pretty close, which means there's a chance it could go either way. The Bears' quarterback has been under pressure a lot, but Kmet can step up when it counts. With odds at +162, this bet feels like it could pay off, but remember, it might not work out.

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Pick History & Track Record

Cole Kmet's lines for Sun 18 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receptions 1.5
+162 best over price · 7 books

Cole Kmet's receptions line is 1.5, best over price +162 across 7 books.

Receptions (Alt) 2.5
+162 best over price · 7 books

Cole Kmet's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price +162 across 7 books.

Receptions (Alt) 0.5
+162 best over price · 7 books

Cole Kmet's receptions (alt) line is 0.5, best over price +162 across 7 books.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 39.5

Cole Kmet's receiving yards (alt) line is 39.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 49.5

Cole Kmet's receiving yards (alt) line is 49.5.

Receiving Yards (Alt) 59.5

Cole Kmet's receiving yards (alt) line is 59.5.

Betting angles

2 markets live
ReceptionsNext game · Atlanta FalconsO 1.5 +162
1.5posted line · receptions

Cole Kmet has a live NFL receptions market for Atlanta Falcons: over 1.5 receptions priced at +162.

Receiving YardsNext game · Atlanta FalconsO 39.5 +850
39.5posted line · receiving yds

Cole Kmet has a live NFL receiving yards market for Atlanta Falcons: over 39.5 receiving yds priced at +850.

Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
14%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Cole Kmet's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 14%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Cole Kmet average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receiving Yards 9.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receiving Yards 8.5 Under -109 ✓ HIT
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receptions — — — Pending
11 Oct 26 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Cole Kmet (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cole Kmet is Over 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.2% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons on Sunday 18 October at Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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