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NFL

Cole Kmet

CHI

Value call

Cole Kmet has one live pick today: over 1.5 receptions that pays $278 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
40 in 100
Predicted
1.9 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 40.1% · before adjusting for past results 52.3% · the book's price implies 36.0% · gap +4.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Chicago · Indoor
Thu 22 Oct, 8:15 PM ET
Cole Kmet
over 1.5 receptions
Receptions Over 1.5 +178 (2.78) · $100→$278
Value call
LEANWins about 40 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$27.80 Odds+178
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Cole Kmet is Over 1.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 40 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 40%, the price says 36%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:04PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions52.3%40.1%36.0%2.97+16.3%

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AI Analysis

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Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots: Cole Kmet Over 1.5 Receptions (+178)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Cole Kmet has shown he can be a reliable target for the Bears, especially with Justin Fields looking to connect on short passes. The Patriots have a solid defense, but they can struggle against tight ends, which could open up opportunities for Kmet to make some catches. The odds are pretty much even for this bet, so it's not a sure thing. However, Kmet only needs to catch two passes for us to win this one. The biggest risk is how close the teams are in skill, which could make it a tougher matchup than expected. But I still think Kmet has a good shot to get those receptions.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receptions97 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–4.5model over54%tips tracked97

Cole Kmet's NFL receptions prop has been priced 97 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards140 lines trackedNo line posted
29.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–69.5model over23%tips tracked140

Cole Kmet's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 140 times, typically around a 29.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
14%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Cole Kmet's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 14%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Cole Kmet average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receptions 1.5 Over +178 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receptions (Alt) 1.5 Over +168 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receptions (Alt) 2.5 Over +552 ✓ HIT
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
22 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Cole Kmet (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cole Kmet is Over 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.3% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears on Thursday 22 October at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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