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Model picks & player props
Buffalo Bills
VS
New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 5:54AM UTC

Our model graded 8 markets for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots and backs New England Patriots hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $214.

NFL
New England
Sun 14 Dec 2025, 6:00PM
8
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New England Patriots Moneyline +114

The model graded 8 markets for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $214 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 14 Dec 2025, 6:00PM at New England.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.6%
The price says46.7%
Best price+114
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New England Patriots High67% chance +114
Total Points Members only Lean59% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots last met on Sun 14 Dec 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 24.5 · $100 returned $425

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NFL market — 174 of 355 right (nfl alternate team total points overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 15
Kansas City Chiefs Over 17.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $136
Our call on this game: — members only · unlock tonight's call1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New England Patriots
+114
+ 7 more markets
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All 8 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,537+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Buffalo Bills

  • DJ Moore WRQuestionable
  • Skyler Bell WROut
  • T.J. Sanders DTOut
  • Ed Oliver DTOut
  • Ty Johnson RBOut
  • Ar'maj Reed-Adams GOut
  • Jalon Kilgore SOut
  • Jude Bowry OTOut

New England Patriots

  • Carlton Davis III CBOut
  • Dametrious Crownover OTOut
  • Dre'Mont Jones DEQuestionable
  • Ben Brown CQuestionable
  • A.J. Brown WROut
Availability updated Sep 19, 6:40PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: Outdoors with 14 mph wind, 33°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind14 mph
Temperature33°F
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadNew England Patriots spreadNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBills @ PatriotsNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots — 8 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots — recent results

New England Patriots have won 1 of their last 5 games; Buffalo Bills have won 5 of their last 5.

New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L10–13SEAAway
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome
L13–29SEAHome
Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W41–31DETHome
W36–31HOUAway
W28–27PITHome
W31–7CLEAway
W29–14CARHome

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Carlton Davis III CBOUT
Dametrious Crownover OTOUT
Dre'Mont Jones DEQUESTIONABLE
Ben Brown CQUESTIONABLE
A.J. Brown WROUT
Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
DJ Moore WRQUESTIONABLE
Skyler Bell WROUT
T.J. Sanders DTOUT
Ed Oliver DTOUT
Ty Johnson RBOUT
Ar'maj Reed-Adams GOUT
Jalon Kilgore SOUT
Jude Bowry OTOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
14 Dec 25 Total Points Over 49.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bills vs Patriots, or as Patriots vs Bills. The most recent game between them was Sunday 14 December 2025 at New England. The model has generated 8 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
New England Patriots 13–10 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 44.4 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
14 Dec 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots31–35Buffalo Bills
5 Oct 2025New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills20–23New England Patriots
5 Jan 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots23–16New England Patriots
22 Dec 2024New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills24–21Buffalo Bills
31 Dec 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills27–21Buffalo Bills
22 Oct 2023Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots29–25New England Patriots
8 Jan 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills35–23Buffalo Bills
1 Dec 2022Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots10–24Buffalo Bills
15 Jan 2022New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills47–17Buffalo Bills
26 Dec 2021Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots21–33Buffalo Bills

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

Playing fantasy? NFL fantasy projections for this week — the same model, scored your way.

Today's selected board

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