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Model picks & player props
Buffalo Bills
VS
New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:47AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
New England
Sun 14 Dec 2025, 6:00PM
8
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New England Patriots Moneyline +114

The model graded 8 markets for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $214 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 14 Dec 2025, 6:00PM at New England.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.6%
The price says46.7%
Best price+114
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New England Patriots High67% chance +114
Total Points Lean59% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 24.5 · $100 returned $420

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New England Patriots
+114
+ 7 more markets
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All 8 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Buffalo Bills

  • Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable
  • Keon Coleman WRQuestionable
  • Ty Johnson RBQuestionable
  • Terrel Bernard LBQuestionable
  • Jude Bowry OTQuestionable
  • Connor McGovern CQuestionable
  • Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LBOut
  • Michael Hoecht DEQuestionable

New England Patriots

  • Brenden Schooler SOut
  • Harold Landry III LBOut
  • TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable
  • Bryce Baringer PQuestionable
  • Marcus Bryant OTQuestionable
  • Myles Montgomery RBOut
  • Ben Brown CQuestionable
Availability updated Aug 29, 5:34PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: Outdoors with 14 mph wind, 33°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind14 mph
Temperature33°F
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadNew England Patriots spreadNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBills @ PatriotsNo line posted
5-5Free board · overs and unders
Last 105-5Home5-4
Free board · recent overs and unders5-5

New England Patriots game total — on our free board this call has landed 5 of 10 times, updated every game week on BetBetter.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots — 8 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots — recent results

New England Patriots have won 2 of their last 5 games; Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5.

New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome
L13–29SEAHome
W10–7DENAway
Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W28–27PITHome
W31–7CLEAway
W29–14CARHome
L30–33DENAway
W27–24JAXAway

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Brenden Schooler SOUT
Harold Landry III LBOUT
TreVeyon Henderson RBQUESTIONABLE
Bryce Baringer PQUESTIONABLE
Marcus Bryant OTQUESTIONABLE
Myles Montgomery RBOUT
Ben Brown CQUESTIONABLE
Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
Khalil Shakir WRQUESTIONABLE
Keon Coleman WRQUESTIONABLE
Ty Johnson RBQUESTIONABLE
Terrel Bernard LBQUESTIONABLE
Jude Bowry OTQUESTIONABLE
Connor McGovern CQUESTIONABLE
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LBOUT
Michael Hoecht DEQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
14 Dec 25 Total Points Over 49.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bills vs Patriots, or as Patriots vs Bills. The most recent game between them was Sunday 14 December 2025 at New England. The model has generated 8 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
New England Patriots 13–10 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 44.4 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
14 Dec 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots31–35Buffalo Bills
5 Oct 2025New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills20–23New England Patriots
5 Jan 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots23–16New England Patriots
22 Dec 2024New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills24–21Buffalo Bills
31 Dec 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills27–21Buffalo Bills
22 Oct 2023Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots29–25New England Patriots
8 Jan 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills35–23Buffalo Bills
1 Dec 2022Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots10–24Buffalo Bills
15 Jan 2022New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills47–17Buffalo Bills
26 Dec 2021Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots21–33Buffalo Bills

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

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