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Model picks & player props
MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Wed 30 Sep 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees and backs Over 9 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $360.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 9 total runs
Over 9 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$36.00Best price+260
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win25.6%
The price says26.5%

The model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $360 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 30 Sep 2026, 8:15 PM ET at Yankee Stadium.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9 Long-shot26% chance +260
Total Runs Members only Long-shot19% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean51% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot17% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean59% chance Members
Pitcher - Outs × 2 props Highup to 75% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 62% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Leanup to 56% Members
Batter - Walks × 4 props Long-shotup to 39% Members
Batter - Singles × 2 props Highup to 76% Members
Batter - Hits × 8 props Leanup to 59% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Leanup to 44% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 5 props Long-shotup to 33% Members
Batter - RBIs × 7 props Long-shotup to 39% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees last met on Wed 30 Sep 2026: New York Yankees won 9-2. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
9
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Caleb Durbin 3BOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Mickey Gasper DHOut
  • Romy Gonzalez DHDay-to-day
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Eli White CFOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

New York Yankees

  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
Availability updated Oct 11, 3:12PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Sonny Gray BOS Pitcher - Outs
Max Fried Pitcher - Outs
Sonny Gray BOS Pitcher - Strikeouts
Trevor Story BOS Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Caleb Durbin Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF6.4L5 RA4.0Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 3-2, 6.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF6.4L5 RA4.0Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees spread form: last five 3-2, 6.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 3-2, 6.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
5.1runs we expect
L5 RF6.4L5 RA4.0Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 3-2, 6.4 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 2 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4TBHome
L2–5TBAway
L0–1TBAway
W9–2BOSHome
W9–0BOSHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
L0–9NYYAway
L2–6CHCHome
W2–0CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 6.0 runs per game (2-3) while Boston Red Sox are at 2.2 (2-3); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 6.2 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Boston Red Sox.

6.0
New York Yankees runs/G
2.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Runs / game6.02.2
Hits / game10.48.0
Home runs / game2.00.4
Walks drawn / game4.04.0
Batter K / game14.611.0
Earned runs allowed / game6.22.6
Pitching K / game13.29.2
Walks allowed / game5.23.2
L5 record2-32-3

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: New York Yankees won 5, Boston Red Sox won 5.

DateNew York YankeesBoston Red SoxWinner
Oct 192New York Yankees
Sep 3090New York Yankees
Aug 30161New York Yankees
Aug 2992New York Yankees
Aug 2906Boston Red Sox
Aug 2810New York Yankees
Jun 2845Boston Red Sox
Jun 2714Boston Red Sox
Jun 2616Boston Red Sox
Jun 2536Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Caleb Durbin 3BOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Tyron Guerrero RPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Mickey Gasper DHOUT
Romy Gonzalez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Slaten RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees prediction for October 1, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On October 1, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Ryan McMahon (COL) Under 0.5 Singles (-286), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 30 September 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees head-to-head record

Final scores · 61 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 33–26 across the last 61 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Thu 1 Oct 2026, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees: the Yankees won 9-2.

DateGameScoreWinner
1 Oct 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees9–2New York Yankees
30 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees9–0New York Yankees
29 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees9–0New York Yankees
30 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees16–1New York Yankees
29 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees0–6Boston Red Sox
28 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees1–0New York Yankees
28 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox5–4Boston Red Sox
27 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox4–1Boston Red Sox
26 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
25 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox6–3Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 61 meetings on file.

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