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The latest Bet Better model pick for Trey Murphy III is Under 30.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts.
On the Pts + Rebs + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +20.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NBA

Trey Murphy III

New Orleans Pelicans

+20.5% Edge
🔥 4 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 30.5 -114 (1.88)
+20.5% Edge
Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:00PM
DAY-TO-DAY
Murphy (ankle) is listed as out for Friday's game against Minnesota.
updated Jun 16, 2:37PM UTC · 34d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.6%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+20.5%
Predicted Value
25.7 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts73.6%—53.2%1.36+20.5%

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AI Analysis

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Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the New Orleans Pelicans gear up to face the Orlando Magic, all eyes should be on Trey Murphy III's performance. Despite his recent surge at home, averaging 21 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, the match-up against the Magic poses a unique challenge. Historically, Murphy has struggled against Orlando, averaging just 10.5 points at home and posting a combined average of 25.75 in points, rebounds, and assists over his last five games. With his overall numbers trending down against this opponent, it's clear that he may not reach the 30.5 mark set for him. The Pelicans' game plan likely shifts with the Magic's defensive schemes, which could limit Murphy's contributions even further. Given his average of only 16 points against them and a hit rate of just 4 out of the last 4 games on this prop, betting the under feels like a smart move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.1avg · last 10
L52.0Szn3.5Home3.2Away3.9Best11
2+87%
4+49%
6+13%
8+6%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 3.1 · hi 8 · lo 0
8650223230

Trey Murphy III is averaging 3.1 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.5, best 11). He clears 4+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
20.4avg · last 10
L519.0Szn24.8Home24.5Away25.0Best44
15+94%
20+77%
25+45%
30+19%
35+11%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 20.4 · hi 29 · lo 0
1826242615292419230

Trey Murphy III is averaging 20.4 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.8, best 44). He clears 25+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
24.9avg · last 10
L523.0Szn29.8Home29.5Away30.1Best49
20+92%
25+75%
30+53%
35+23%
40+13%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 24.9 · hi 34 · lo 0
2132303120342824290

Trey Murphy III is averaging 24.9 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 29.8, best 49). He clears 30+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
4.5avg · last 10
L54.0Szn5.1Home5.0Away5.1Best11
1+98%
3+91%
5+60%
7+19%
9+6%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.5 · hi 6 · lo 0
3665554560

Trey Murphy III is averaging 4.5 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.1, best 11). He clears 5+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
7.6avg · last 10
L56.0Szn8.6Home8.2Away9.0Best20
3+98%
6+81%
9+55%
12+15%
15+2%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 7.6 · hi 12 · lo 0
1112115777790

Trey Murphy III is averaging 7.6 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.6, best 20). He clears 9+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Apr 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings Pts + Asts 25.5 Under -109 ✓ HIT
07 Mar 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts 19.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
04 Mar 26 New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs + Asts 32.5 Under -120 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Trey Murphy III is currently on a 4-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Trey Murphy III is Under 30.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.5% on this pick. Their next game is Orlando Magic vs New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday 5 April at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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