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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Kornet is Over 2.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +17.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
NBA

Luke Kornet

San Antonio Spurs

+17.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 2.5 -196 (1.51)
+17.0% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
83.2%
Implied Probability
66.2%
Model Edge
+17.0%
Predicted Value
9.2 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs83.2%66.2%1.20+17.0%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Kornet (San Antonio Spurs) Over 2.5 Points + Rebounds (-196)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When the Spurs face off against the Knicks, keep an eye on Luke Kornet to hit the Over on his combined points and rebounds total of 2.5. Playing at home, Kornet has been a reliable contributor, with an impressive hit rate-he's gone Over in 18 of his last 20 home games, averaging 2.8 points and 3.6 rebounds in that setting. The Knicks present a favorable matchup, considering Kornet's recent performance against them; at home, he's averaged 4.8 points and a solid 6 rebounds. With an expected stat value of 9.17, it's clear that Kornet is primed for a productive outing. The Spurs will likely need his size to combat the Knicks' frontcourt, which could elevate Kornet's minutes. All signs point to him comfortably clearing that 2.5 threshold, making this an enticing prop bet as the Spurs look to secure a home win.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
4.6avg · last 10
L55.0Szn5.8Home5.9Away5.7Best25
1+88%
6+48%
11+17%
16+4%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 4.6 · hi 11 · lo 0
11226094660

Luke Kornet is averaging 4.6 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.8, best 25). He clears 6+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
8.3avg · last 10
L58.8Szn10.9Home10.9Away10.9Best31
1+98%
6+76%
11+46%
16+24%
21+9%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 8.3 · hi 19 · lo 0
19341211391480

Luke Kornet is averaging 8.3 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.9, best 31). He clears 11+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.7avg · last 10
L53.8Szn5.1Home4.9Away5.2Best16
1+98%
3+82%
5+48%
7+30%
9+11%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 3.7 · hi 8 · lo 0
8126145820

Luke Kornet is averaging 3.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.1, best 16). He clears 5+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 2.5 Over -196 ✗ MISS
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 0.5 Over -135 ✗ MISS
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 3.5 Over -122 ✗ MISS
11 Jun 26 San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs Pending
11 Jun 26 San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Luke Kornet (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Kornet is Over 2.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.0% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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