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The latest Bet Better model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 7.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 85%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
NBA

Keldon Johnson

San Antonio Spurs

+18.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 7.5 -200 (1.50)
+18.3% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
84.9%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+18.3%
Predicted Value
14.6 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs84.9%—66.7%1.18+18.3%

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AI Analysis

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Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds (-200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the New York Knicks, Keldon Johnson stands out as a savvy bet for over 7.5 points plus rebounds. Playing at home, Johnson has been a force, posting an impressive average of 9.6 points and 5.4 rebounds against the Knicks over his last five home games. That adds up to a solid 15 points and rebounds combined-comfortably eclipsing our target.The Spurs' young star has shown remarkable consistency, hitting this mark in 17 of his last 20 home outings. With Johnson actively involved in the offense and capable of creating his own shots, the home crowd will only amplify his performance. The Knicks have struggled to contain versatile scorers like Johnson, leading me to believe he'll not only meet but exceed expectations on Sunday. Keep an eye on this one; it feels like a lock!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
14.1avg · last 10
L513.0Szn12.7Home14.7Away10.7Best36
3+96%
8+78%
13+43%
18+22%
23+10%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 14.1 · hi 23 · lo 2
10172319772122123

Keldon Johnson is averaging 14.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.7, best 36). He clears 13+ in 43% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
20.4avg · last 10
L519.4Szn17.5Home19.9Away15.1Best47
8+92%
13+74%
18+44%
23+26%
28+13%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 20.4 · hi 32 · lo 7
1527292214117182932

Keldon Johnson is averaging 20.4 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.5, best 47). He clears 18+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
6.3avg · last 10
L56.4Szn4.8Home5.3Away4.3Best21
1+99%
3+84%
5+51%
7+18%
9+6%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 6.3 · hi 10 · lo 3
51063745689

Keldon Johnson is averaging 6.3 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.8, best 21). He clears 5+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 7.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 5.5 Over -154 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 6.5 Over -106 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 7.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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