Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 5.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +23.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:54AM UTC
NBA

Keldon Johnson

San Antonio Spurs

+23.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 5.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+23.0% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
83.6%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+23.0%
Predicted Value
11.2 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points83.6%60.6%1.20+23.0%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) Over 5.5 Points (-154)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the New York Knicks, Keldon Johnson stands out as a prime candidate for the over on 5.5 points. Johnson has been consistently stepping up at home, boasting an impressive hit rate where he's surpassed this threshold in 15 of his last 19 home games. The Knicks have historically struggled to contain players like Johnson, and at home, he's averaged a solid 9.6 points against them in recent matchups. While his overall average has hovered around 5.2 in the last five games, the home court advantage can't be overlooked. Johnson's expected stat value of 11.17 suggests he's due for a breakout. With a 60.6% implied probability backing this bet, it feels like a no-brainer to ride with Johnson to deliver the goods in front of the home crowd.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
14.1avg · last 10
L513.0Szn12.7Home14.7Away10.7Best36
3+96%
8+78%
13+43%
18+22%
23+10%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 14.1 · hi 23 · lo 2
10172319772122123

Keldon Johnson is averaging 14.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.7, best 36). He clears 13+ in 43% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
20.4avg · last 10
L519.4Szn17.5Home19.9Away15.1Best47
8+92%
13+74%
18+44%
23+26%
28+13%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 20.4 · hi 32 · lo 7
1527292214117182932

Keldon Johnson is averaging 20.4 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.5, best 47). He clears 18+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
6.3avg · last 10
L56.4Szn4.8Home5.3Away4.3Best21
1+99%
3+84%
5+51%
7+18%
9+6%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 6.3 · hi 10 · lo 3
51063745689

Keldon Johnson is averaging 6.3 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.8, best 21). He clears 5+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 5.5 Over -154 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 7.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 5.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.0% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.