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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 7.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 85%, implied 68%, edge +17.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 19, 10:57AM UTC
NBA

Keldon Johnson

San Antonio Spurs

+17.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 7.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
+17.4% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
14.6 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 84.9% · the book's price implies 67.6% · gap +17.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs84.9%67.6%1.18+17.4%

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AI Analysis

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Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Keldon Johnson is primed for a standout performance against the New York Knicks at home, making the Over on his combined points and rebounds at 7.5 a compelling bet. Why, you ask? Well, Johnson has shown a remarkable ability to elevate his play in front of the home crowd, averaging nearly 10 points and over 5 rebounds against this very opponent when playing on familiar turf. His recent form is also hard to ignore; he's hit the Over in 17 of his last 20 home games, with an impressive 14 out of 20 overall. The Spurs are relying on him to step up, and the data suggests he's more than capable. With an expected stat value of 14.65, it feels like a solid play to back Johnson to not just meet, but exceed that 7.5 mark. Expect him to shine in this matchup!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Keldon Johnson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 77 games in the 2024-25 season, Keldon Johnson averaged 12.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 23.8 minutes per game, shooting 48.2% from the field and 31.8% from three-point range.

12.7
PPG
4.8
RPG
1.6
APG
0.6
SPG
0.3
BPG
23.8
MPG
48.2%
FG%
31.8%
3P%

Keldon Johnson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Keldon Johnson has played 25.0 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

25.0
MPG (L5)
13.0
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Keldon Johnson — points hit rate

Keldon Johnson has scored over 12.5 points in 53% of 165 career games.

o11.560%
o12.553%
o15.535%
o20.515%

Keldon Johnson — home vs away scoring

At home Keldon Johnson averages 14.7 points per game; on the road, 10.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

14.7
PPG at home
10.7
PPG on the road

Keldon Johnson — scoring by opponent

Keldon Johnson scores most against the CHI, averaging 19.5 points per game in that matchup.

19.5
CHI
19.0
MIL
18.0
WSH
17.7
HOU
17.6
DEN
17.1
MIN

Keldon Johnson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Keldon Johnson has averaged 14.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Aprvs TOR272390
9 Apr@ GS312182
8 Apr@ LAC221262
6 Apr@ POR21251
4 Aprvs CLE24743
1 Aprvs ORL18774
30 Marvs GS211932
29 Marvs BOS342363
27 Mar@ CLE2717100
25 Mar@ DET221053
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 7.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 6.5 Over -106 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 5.5 Over -154 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keldon Johnson is Over 7.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.4% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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