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NBA

Keldon Johnson

San Antonio Spurs

Value call

Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) has one live pick today: under 8.5 points that pays $265 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
50 in 100
Predicted
8.1 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 50.5% · before adjusting for past results 62.3% · the book's price implies 37.7% · gap +12.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Tue 27 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Keldon Johnson
under 8.5 points
Points Under 8.5 +165 (2.65) · $100→$265
Value call
LEANWins about 50 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$26.50 Odds+165
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Keldon Johnson is Under 8.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 50 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 50%, the price says 38%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 9:23AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points62.3%50.5%37.7%1.98+24.5%

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AI Analysis

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San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings: Keldon Johnson Under 8.5 Points (+165)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Keldon Johnson plays for the Spurs, who are facing the Sacramento Kings at the Frost Bank Center. The Kings have a reputation for letting opponents shoot a lot of three-pointers and grab rebounds, which can open up chances for scoring. However, they also force turnovers at a decent rate, which might limit Johnson's chances to rack up points. While our numbers give a good chance for Johnson to score under 8.5 points, it's important to remember that both teams are closely matched. The Kings can be tough on defense, especially when they focus on taking the ball away from their opponents. This makes it tricky for Johnson to find his rhythm and get higher point totals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Keldon Johnson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 77 games in the 2024-25 season, Keldon Johnson averaged 12.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 23.8 minutes per game, shooting 48.2% from the field and 31.8% from three-point range.

12.7
PPG
4.8
RPG
1.6
APG
0.6
SPG
0.3
BPG
23.8
MPG
48.2%
FG%
31.8%
3P%

Keldon Johnson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Keldon Johnson has played 25.0 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

25.0
MPG (L5)
13.0
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Keldon Johnson — points hit rate

Keldon Johnson has scored over 12.5 points in 53% of 165 career games.

o11.560%
o12.553%
o15.535%
o20.515%

Keldon Johnson — home vs away scoring

At home Keldon Johnson averages 14.7 points per game; on the road, 10.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

14.7
PPG at home
10.7
PPG on the road

Keldon Johnson — scoring by opponent

Keldon Johnson scores most against the CHI, averaging 19.5 points per game in that matchup.

19.5
CHI
19.0
MIL
18.0
WSH
17.7
HOU
17.6
DEN
17.1
MIN

Keldon Johnson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Keldon Johnson has averaged 14.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Aprvs TOR272390
9 Apr@ GS312182
8 Apr@ LAC221262
6 Apr@ POR21251
4 Aprvs CLE24743
1 Aprvs ORL18774
30 Marvs GS211932
29 Marvs BOS342363
27 Mar@ CLE2717100
25 Mar@ DET221053
Quick answers:How many points does Keldon Johnson average?How many rebounds does Keldon Johnson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Oct 26 Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs Points 8.5 Under +165 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 5.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 6.5 Over -106 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
10 Jun 26 San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Points — — — Pending

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About This Player

Keldon Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Keldon Johnson is Under 8.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday 27 October at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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