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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jose Alvarado is Over 9.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 44%, versus the book's implied 25%, for a model edge of +18.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC
NBA

Jose Alvarado

New York Knicks

+18.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 9.5 +294 (3.94)
+18.1% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
43.5%
Implied Probability
25.4%
Model Edge
+18.1%
Predicted Value
8.4 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs43.5%—25.4%2.30+18.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jose Alvarado (New York Knicks) Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds (+294)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When it comes to Jose Alvarado, there's something intriguing about his potential to thrive in this matchup against the Spurs. Although his recent numbers might not leap off the page-averaging just over 5 points and 2.4 rebounds in his last five games-don't let that fool you. Historically, when he takes the court against the Knicks, he manages to elevate his performance, averaging around 6 points and 2.8 rebounds away from home. The Spurs' defense can offer opportunities, particularly for guards who are willing to penetrate. Alvarado's tenacity and ability to find openings could push him over that 9.5 mark with both points and rebounds combined. Considering he's hit this over in 5 of his last 12 away games, it's clear he possesses the capability. With the added motivation in a vital matchup, Alvarado is poised to exceed expectations and deliver for bettors looking for value.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
2.0avg · last 10
L52.6Szn2.0Home2.1Away1.9Best8
1+86%
2+52%
3+34%
4+14%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 6 · lo 0
3210106331

Jose Alvarado is averaging 2.0 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.0, best 8). He clears 2+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
13.8avg · last 10
L517.6Szn10.3Home11.3Away9.4Best38
5+80%
10+48%
15+21%
20+7%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 13.8 · hi 27 · lo 9
910910121727161414

Jose Alvarado is averaging 13.8 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.3, best 38). He clears 10+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
16.7avg · last 10
L520.2Szn12.8Home13.9Away11.6Best41
3+98%
8+73%
13+46%
18+23%
23+11%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 16.7 · hi 31 · lo 10
10141213171931171717

Jose Alvarado is averaging 16.7 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.8, best 41). He clears 13+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
21.4avg · last 10
L524.8Szn17.4Home18.6Away16.2Best43
7+89%
12+73%
17+54%
22+29%
27+18%
Game log vs O 16.5avg 21.4 · hi 36 · lo 12
12221817212936211721

Jose Alvarado is averaging 21.4 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.4, best 43). He clears 17+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 9.5 Over +294 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Jose Alvarado (New York Knicks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jose Alvarado is Over 9.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.1% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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