Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jonas Valanciunas is Over 5.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 57%, edge +12.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 8:39PM UTC
NBA

Jonas Valanciunas

Sacramento Kings

+12.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 5.5 -135 (1.74) · $100→$174
+12.2% Edge
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA · Indoor
Sun 15 Mar, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
8.5 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 69.7% · the book's price implies 57.5% · gap +12.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points69.7%57.5%1.44+12.2%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jonas Valanciunas (Sacramento Kings) Over 5.5 Points (-135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Lakers gear up to host the Nuggets, keep a close eye on Jonas Valanciunas and his scoring potential. With an average of 5.8 points in his last five games, he's consistently hovered above our target of 5.5. What's compelling is his recent form against the Nuggets, where he's also averaged 5.8 points. Now, here's the kicker: Denver's opponents have been getting the better of their frontcourt, allowing an average of 9.6 points to big men at home. Valanciunas has hit the over in 16 of his last 20 outings, showcasing his ability to thrive in high-pressure situations. With an expected stat value of 8.53, it seems the stars are aligning for him to exceed that modest threshold. In a matchup that promises plenty of scoring, banking on Valanciunas to deliver a handful of buckets feels like a savvy play.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Jonas Valanciunas — 2024-25 season averages

Over 82 games in the 2024-25 season, Jonas Valanciunas averaged 10.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 18.7 minutes per game, shooting 55.2% from the field and 21.6% from three-point range.

10.3
PPG
7.7
RPG
2.0
APG
0.5
SPG
0.6
BPG
18.7
MPG
55.2%
FG%
21.6%
3P%

Jonas Valanciunas — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jonas Valanciunas has played 12.6 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

12.6
MPG (L5)
9.4
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Jonas Valanciunas — points hit rate

Jonas Valanciunas has scored over 12.5 points in 51% of 785 career games.

o11.557%
o12.551%
o15.535%
o20.512%

Jonas Valanciunas — home vs away scoring

At home Jonas Valanciunas averages 10.5 points per game; on the road, 10.1. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

10.5
PPG at home
10.1
PPG on the road

Jonas Valanciunas — scoring by opponent

Jonas Valanciunas scores most against the HOU, averaging 17.8 points per game in that matchup.

17.8
HOU
17.7
SA
16.9
DET
16.6
SAC
16.2
MIL
15.7
PHX

Jonas Valanciunas — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 7.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
16 Aprvs DAL10410
13 Aprvs PHX2122104
11 Aprvs LAC10931
9 Aprvs DEN9220
7 Apr@ DET1310121
6 Apr@ CLE5221
4 Apr@ CHA19672
2 Apr@ WSH131260
31 Mar@ IND8231
29 Mar@ ORL11440
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Mar 26 New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets Pts + Rebs Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jonas Valanciunas (Sacramento Kings) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jonas Valanciunas is Over 5.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday 15 March at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.