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The latest Bet Better model pick for Paul George is Under 27.5 on Pts + Asts.
On the Pts + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +20.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
NBA

Paul George

Philadelphia 76ers

+20.2% Edge
🔥 5 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Asts Under 27.5 -179 (1.56)
+20.2% Edge
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA · Indoor
Wed 15 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
84.3%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+20.2%
Predicted Value
21.1 Pts + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Asts84.3%—64.1%1.19+20.2%

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AI Analysis

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Paul George (Philadelphia 76ers) Under 27.5 Points + Assists (-179)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the 76ers host the Magic, targeting Paul George for under 27.5 points and assists feels like a savvy play. Over his last five outings, he's averaged just 15 points and 2.6 assists, well short of that lofty total. Even in the comforts of home, where he's been slightly more productive with 19.4 points and 4.2 assists, he still falls short of the mark. Against the Magic, he's averaged 17.8 points and 4.8 assists-solid numbers, but they don't quite stack up to the hefty line set for him. The fact that he's hit the under in five straight games and has a striking 15 out of 20 home games going under makes this bet all the more enticing. With an expected stat value of just 21.08, the numbers suggest that tonight, less might indeed be more for George.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.0avg · last 10
L52.2Szn2.3Home2.9Away2.0Best10
1+88%
2+61%
3+39%
4+20%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 4 · lo 0
2220312431

Paul George is averaging 2.0 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.3, best 10). He clears 2+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
14.2avg · last 10
L516.6Szn16.2Home18.1Away15.0Best47
6+93%
11+80%
16+44%
21+24%
26+15%
Game log vs O 15.5avg 14.2 · hi 25 · lo 2
141214217151925177

Paul George is averaging 14.2 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 16.2, best 47). He clears 16+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
17.7avg · last 10
L520.8Szn20.6Home22.3Away19.4Best57
11+93%
16+73%
21+39%
26+24%
31+20%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 17.7 · hi 32 · lo 6
1418166191721322113

Paul George is averaging 17.7 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 20.6, best 57). He clears 21+ in 39% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
19.1avg · last 10
L523.0Szn21.6Home23.8Away20.1Best62
12+90%
17+68%
22+39%
27+24%
32+17%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 19.1 · hi 33 · lo 8
1517178192221332514

Paul George is averaging 19.1 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.6, best 62). He clears 22+ in 39% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
22.6avg · last 10
L527.2Szn25.9Home28.1Away24.5Best69
16+88%
21+73%
26+41%
31+27%
36+20%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 22.6 · hi 40 · lo 12
15231912212423402920

Paul George is averaging 22.6 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.9, best 69). He clears 26+ in 41% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
15 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Pts + Asts 27.5 Under -179 ✓ HIT
15 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Points 24.5 Under -227 ✓ HIT
15 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Pts + Rebs + Asts 34.5 Under -208 ✓ HIT
15 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers Pts + Asts — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Paul George (Philadelphia 76ers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Paul George is currently on a 5-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Paul George is Under 27.5 on Pts + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.2% on this pick. Their next game is Orlando Magic vs Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday 15 April at Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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