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Jalen Duren

Detroit Pistons

Value call

Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons) has one live pick today: under 17.5 points that pays $193 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
13.7 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 53.8% · before adjusting for past results 82.8% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +2.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat
Kaseya Center, Miami, FL · Indoor
Fri 23 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Jalen Duren
under 17.5 points
Points Under 17.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
Value call
LEANWins about 54 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.30 Odds-108
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Duren is Under 17.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 9:27AM UTC
OUT
Duren will be re-evaluated in two weeks due to a right hamstring strain, Eric Vincent of ClutchPoints.com reports.
updated Oct 25, 2:56PM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points82.8%53.8%51.8%1.86+30.9%

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AI Analysis

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Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons: Jalen Duren Under 17.5 Points (-108)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Jalen Duren to score under 17.5 points tonight, the Miami Heat will need to play strong defense. They have a solid record of limiting opponents' scoring chances, especially when it comes to rebounds and forcing turnovers. The Heat let teams shoot a lot of three-pointers, but they also control the boards well, which means fewer second-chance points for Duren. Duren's scoring could be challenged by the Heat's ability to force turnovers and their decent defensive play. One risk is that he might get more opportunities if the game is close and both teams are scoring well. Still, with Miami's defensive strength, it seems likely he'll stay below that points total tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jalen Duren — 2024-25 season averages

Over 84 games in the 2024-25 season, Jalen Duren averaged 11.8 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 26.7 minutes per game, shooting 68.9% from the field.

11.8
PPG
10.4
RPG
2.7
APG
0.7
SPG
1.2
BPG
26.7
MPG
68.9%
FG%

Jalen Duren — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jalen Duren has played 35.8 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

35.8
MPG (L5)
12.8
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jalen Duren — home vs away scoring

At home Jalen Duren averages 12.8 points per game; on the road, 10.8. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

12.8
PPG at home
10.8
PPG on the road

Jalen Duren — scoring by opponent

Jalen Duren scores most against the CHI, averaging 13.2 points per game in that matchup.

13.2
CHI
12.8
IND
11.4
MIA
10.7
CHA
10.7
ORL
10.5
NY

Jalen Duren — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Duren has averaged 11.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
1 Mayvs NY392163
29 Apr@ NY339146
27 Aprvs NY386174
24 Aprvs NY321683
21 Apr@ NY3712132
19 Apr@ NY25763
13 Apr@ MIL8412
11 Aprvs MIL3911165
10 Aprvs NY2618132
7 Aprvs SAC20696
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Oct 26 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat Points 17.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
23 Oct 26 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat Pts + Rebs 26.5 Under +105 ✓ HIT
23 Oct 26 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat Points 14.5 Under +170 ✓ HIT
23 Oct 26 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
23 Oct 26 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
23 Oct 26 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalen Duren is Under 17.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +30.9% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat on Friday 23 October at Kaseya Center, Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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