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The latest Bet Better model pick for Duncan Robinson is Over 15.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 57%, versus the book's implied 41%, for a model edge of +15.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:23PM UTC
NBA

Duncan Robinson

Detroit Pistons

+15.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 15.5 +142 (2.42)
+15.3% Edge
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 10:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
56.6%
Implied Probability
41.3%
Model Edge
+15.3%
Predicted Value
16.6 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs56.6%—41.3%1.77+15.3%

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AI Analysis

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Duncan Robinson (Detroit Pistons) Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (+142)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Duncan Robinson has quietly become a key player for the Miami Heat, and Sunday's matchup against the Orlando Magic offers a prime opportunity for him to shine. Playing at home, Robinson has averaged 16.6 points and 2.6 rebounds in his last five games, displaying a knack for stepping up when the spotlight is brightest. In fact, his performance against the Magic has been particularly strong, with an average of 10.8 points and 2.2 rebounds at home, allowing him to clear the 15.5 mark with relative ease. Over the past six games, he's hit this over four times, including all four home games. Given the Pistons' defense, which often struggles to contain perimeter shooting, Robinson is poised to exploit this matchup. Look for him to not just meet, but exceed expectations, making the Over on 15.5 points + rebounds a compelling bet to consider.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
2.0avg · last 10
L51.0Szn2.5Home2.7Away2.2Best10
1+86%
2+74%
3+41%
4+24%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 6 · lo 0
5062212110

Duncan Robinson is averaging 2.0 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.5, best 10). He clears 2+ in 74% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
8.1avg · last 10
L54.6Szn10.6Home11.9Away9.3Best34
1+94%
6+80%
11+44%
16+23%
21+10%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 8.1 · hi 21 · lo 0
212216868360

Duncan Robinson is averaging 8.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.6, best 34). He clears 11+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
8.9avg · last 10
L55.0Szn12.8Home14.5Away11.1Best38
3+94%
8+75%
13+50%
18+26%
23+13%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 8.9 · hi 22 · lo 0
224218978460

Duncan Robinson is averaging 8.9 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.8, best 38). He clears 13+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
9.5avg · last 10
L55.6Szn12.8Home14.1Away11.4Best37
3+95%
8+75%
13+46%
18+28%
23+13%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 9.5 · hi 23 · lo 1
23323810711361

Duncan Robinson is averaging 9.5 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.8, best 37). He clears 13+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
10.3avg · last 10
L56.0Szn15.0Home16.7Away13.2Best41
5+93%
10+74%
15+49%
20+31%
25+14%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 10.3 · hi 24 · lo 1
245231011811461

Duncan Robinson is averaging 10.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.0, best 41). He clears 15+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
2.2avg · last 10
L51.4Szn4.4Home4.8Away4.0Best15
1+99%
4+59%
7+23%
10+4%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 2.2 · hi 4 · lo 0
3324323101

Duncan Robinson is averaging 2.2 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.4, best 15). He clears 4+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 15.5 Over +142 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 13.5 Over -112 ✗ MISS
10 Apr 26 Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 11.5 Over -104 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets Points — — — Pending
10 Apr 26 Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
04 Mar 26 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Duncan Robinson (Detroit Pistons) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Duncan Robinson is Over 15.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.3% on this pick. Their next game is Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons on Sunday 19 April at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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