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The latest Bet Better model pick for John Collins is Over 11.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 50%, for a model edge of +21.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:29PM UTC
NBA

John Collins

LA Clippers

+21.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 11.5 +102 (2.02)
+21.4% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers
Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA · Indoor
Thu 16 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
70.9%
Implied Probability
49.5%
Model Edge
+21.4%
Predicted Value
14.7 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points70.9%—49.5%1.41+21.4%

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AI Analysis

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John Collins (LA Clippers) Over 11.5 Points (+102)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In tonight's clash between the Clippers and Warriors, John Collins stands out as a prime candidate to exceed 11.5 points. His recent form has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 13.4 points over his last five games, and an impressive 14.8 when playing at home. But what really boosts our confidence is his past performance against the Warriors; Collins has averaged 14.8 points against them lately, which is significant considering Golden State's defense has allowed opposing forwards to score an average of 17.4 points in their last five games. With an 87.5% hit rate in his last eight games and a perfect 100% at home over his last five, the signs are all pointing to a big night for Collins. It's a matchup tailored for him to shine, making the over on 11.5 points not just a possibility, but a compelling play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
21.7avg · last 10
L524.4Szn19.0Home19.8Away18.1Best38
9+100%
14+90%
19+48%
24+18%
29+5%
Game log vs O 18.5avg 21.7 · hi 29 · lo 17
21192117171726292822

John Collins is averaging 21.7 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 19.0, best 38). He clears 19+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
29.8avg · last 10
L532.2Szn27.1Home28.1Away26.2Best52
17+95%
22+80%
27+43%
32+28%
37+13%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 29.8 · hi 41 · lo 24
33242728252429413829

John Collins is averaging 29.8 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 27.1, best 52). He clears 27+ in 43% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

John Collins (LA Clippers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Collins is Over 11.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.4% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday 16 April at Intuit Dome, Inglewood. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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