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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ausar Thompson is Over 15.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 61%, implied 46%, edge +15.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 6:07PM UTC
NBA

Ausar Thompson

Detroit Pistons

+15.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 15.5 +116 (2.16) · $100→$216
+15.1% Edge
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 10:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
17.5 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 61.4% · the book's price implies 46.3% · gap +15.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs61.4%46.3%1.63+15.1%

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AI Analysis

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Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons) Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (+116)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Pistons host the Magic, all eyes should be on Ausar Thompson. The young talent has shown flashes of brilliance, and with a projected points and rebounds line of over 15.5, he's primed for a breakout performance. In recent outings, Thompson has averaged 10.2 points and 5.6 rebounds at home, and against the Magic, he's even managed to snag an impressive 6.4 boards per game. What's particularly intriguing is his overall production against this opponent-averaging 10.6 points in their past encounters. With his expected stat value pushing up to 17.5, it's clear he's capable of exceeding this mark. Plus, the Pistons will lean on him heavily in front of the home crowd, which could push his numbers even higher. Given his recent form and the matchup dynamics, betting on Thompson to soar over 15.5 feels like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Ausar Thompson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 65 games in the 2024-25 season, Ausar Thompson averaged 10.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 22.5 minutes per game, shooting 53.8% from the field and 21.6% from three-point range.

10.2
PPG
5.1
RPG
2.2
APG
1.6
SPG
0.7
BPG
22.5
MPG
53.8%
FG%
21.6%
3P%

Ausar Thompson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Ausar Thompson has played 22.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

22.6
MPG (L5)
11.8
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Ausar Thompson — home vs away scoring

At home Ausar Thompson averages 10.1 points per game; on the road, 10.3. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

10.1
PPG at home
10.3
PPG on the road

Ausar Thompson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
1 Mayvs NY231761
29 Apr@ NY292270
27 Aprvs NY22840
24 Aprvs NY18734
21 Apr@ NY21550
19 Apr@ NY231061
11 Aprvs MIL271171
10 Aprvs NY21341
7 Aprvs SAC291545
5 Aprvs MEM3118115
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ausar Thompson is Over 15.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.1% on this pick. Their next game is Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons on Sunday 19 April at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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