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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ausar Thompson is Over 19.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 39%, versus the book's implied 23%, for a model edge of +15.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:58AM UTC
NBA

Ausar Thompson

Detroit Pistons

+15.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 19.5 +333 (4.33) · $100→$433
+15.5% Edge
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 10:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
38.6%
Implied Probability
23.1%
Model Edge
+15.5%
Predicted Value
17.5 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs38.6%23.1%2.59+15.5%

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AI Analysis

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Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (+333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Detroit Pistons host the Orlando Magic, all eyes should be on Ausar Thompson to surpass 19.5 combined points and rebounds. While Thompson's recent averages of 10.2 points and 5.6 rebounds at home don't scream "star," he's been on a steady upward trend against the Magic, typically notching 10.6 points and 7.4 rebounds in their last encounters. The Pistons' home crowd should provide an electric atmosphere, which often ignites players to elevate their performance. With a hit rate of 4 out of the last 16 games at home, he's due for a breakout game. The model suggests he's capable of hitting close to 17.5, so it's not just about hitting the over; it's about finding value in a player ready to exceed expectations. Look for Thompson to step up in this pivotal matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
11.6avg · last 10
L511.8Szn10.2Home10.1Away10.3Best22
5+89%
10+52%
15+20%
20+2%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 11.6 · hi 22 · lo 3
1815311105782217

Ausar Thompson is averaging 11.6 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.2, best 22). He clears 10+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
17.3avg · last 10
L516.8Szn15.3Home15.3Away15.3Best31
5+100%
10+85%
15+52%
20+26%
25+6%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 17.3 · hi 29 · lo 7
2919718161010122923

Ausar Thompson is averaging 17.3 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.3, best 31). He clears 15+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
19.1avg · last 10
L517.8Szn17.5Home17.7Away17.3Best34
7+98%
12+82%
17+51%
22+29%
27+12%
Game log vs O 16.5avg 19.1 · hi 34 · lo 8
3424819171014122924

Ausar Thompson is averaging 19.1 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.5, best 34). He clears 17+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
5.7avg · last 10
L55.0Szn5.1Home5.3Away5.0Best16
1+100%
3+88%
5+57%
7+26%
9+8%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 5.7 · hi 11 · lo 3
11447653476

Ausar Thompson is averaging 5.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.1, best 16). He clears 5+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 19.5 Over +333 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 15.5 Over +116 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 16.5 Over +152 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ausar Thompson is Over 19.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.5% on this pick. Their next game is Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons on Sunday 19 April at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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