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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ausar Thompson is Over 19.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 39%, versus the book's implied 21%, for a model edge of +17.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:20PM UTC
NBA

Ausar Thompson

Detroit Pistons

+17.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 19.5 +372 (4.72)
+17.4% Edge
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 10:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
38.6%
Implied Probability
21.2%
Model Edge
+17.4%
Predicted Value
17.5 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs38.6%21.2%2.59+17.4%

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AI Analysis

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Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (+372)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pistons gear up to face the Magic, Ausar Thompson stands out as a player to watch. At home, he's averaging a solid 10.2 points and 5.6 rebounds over his last five games, which hints at his ability to contribute significantly. While his overall stats might not scream dominance-averaging 10.2 points and 4.4 rebounds in recent matchups-there's something about the home court that seems to elevate his game. Against the Magic, he's notched an average of 10.6 points and a notable 7.4 rebounds, suggesting he's comfortable exploiting their defense. With a hit rate of 25% over his last 16 home games, there's a flicker of potential here, especially when you consider the implied probability of 21.2% for him to exceed 19.5 combined points and rebounds. If he finds his rhythm early, this could be a prime opportunity to cash in on that

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
11.6avg · last 10
L511.8Szn10.2Home10.1Away10.3Best22
5+89%
10+52%
15+20%
20+2%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 11.6 · hi 22 · lo 3
1815311105782217

Ausar Thompson is averaging 11.6 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.2, best 22). He clears 10+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
17.3avg · last 10
L516.8Szn15.3Home15.3Away15.3Best31
5+100%
10+85%
15+52%
20+26%
25+6%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 17.3 · hi 29 · lo 7
2919718161010122923

Ausar Thompson is averaging 17.3 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.3, best 31). He clears 15+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
19.1avg · last 10
L517.8Szn17.5Home17.7Away17.3Best34
7+98%
12+82%
17+51%
22+29%
27+12%
Game log vs O 16.5avg 19.1 · hi 34 · lo 8
3424819171014122924

Ausar Thompson is averaging 19.1 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.5, best 34). He clears 17+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
5.7avg · last 10
L55.0Szn5.1Home5.3Away5.0Best16
1+100%
3+88%
5+57%
7+26%
9+8%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 5.7 · hi 11 · lo 3
11447653476

Ausar Thompson is averaging 5.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.1, best 16). He clears 5+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 19.5 Over +372 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 15.5 Over +116 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs 16.5 Over +152 ✗ MISS
10 Apr 26 Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs Pending
08 Apr 26 Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs Pending
08 Apr 26 Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ausar Thompson is Over 19.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.4% on this pick. Their next game is Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons on Sunday 19 April at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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