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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ja Morant is Over 25.5 on Pts + Asts.
On the Pts + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +16.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NBA

Ja Morant

Memphis Grizzlies

+16.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Asts Over 25.5 -118 (1.85)
+16.2% Edge
Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN · Indoor
Thu 18 Dec, 1:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
54.1%
Model Edge
+16.2%
Predicted Value
28.9 Pts + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Asts70.3%—54.1%1.42+16.2%

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AI Analysis

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Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Ja Morant to score over 25.5 points and assists is backed by his recent performance. Over the last five games, Morant has averaged 22.2 points and 5.4 assists in away games. This total of 27.6 is higher than the proposed outcome point of 25.5, indicating a favorable trend. Furthermore, when facing the Timberwolves, his average performance remains strong with 21 points and 7 assists in away games, totaling 28. This further supports the bet. Morant's overall and away hit rates, at 15/18 and 7/9 respectively, demonstrate his consistent ability to meet high expectations. In conclusion, the data suggests that Morant is likely to score over 25.5 points and assists in the upcoming game against the Timberwolves.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
25.0avg · last 10
L519.8Szn22.9Home22.6Away23.2Best52
13+89%
18+76%
23+53%
28+25%
33+5%
Game log vs O 22.5avg 25 · hi 36 · lo 15
36302836212222172315

Ja Morant is averaging 25.0 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.9, best 52). He clears 23+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
30.6avg · last 10
L525.2Szn30.0Home30.4Away29.5Best58
20+89%
25+82%
30+58%
35+25%
40+11%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 30.6 · hi 42 · lo 20
42333642272531212920

Ja Morant is averaging 30.6 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.0, best 58). He clears 30+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ja Morant is Over 25.5 on Pts + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday 18 December at Target Center, Minneapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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