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The latest Bet Better model pick for De'Aaron Fox is Over 12.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +20.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:53AM UTC
NBA

De'Aaron Fox

San Antonio Spurs

+20.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 12.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+20.9% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.8%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+20.9%
Predicted Value
20.2 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points90.8%69.9%1.10+20.9%

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AI Analysis

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De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs) Over 12.5 Points (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As De'Aaron Fox steps onto the court at home against the New York Knicks, all signs point toward an explosive performance. He's been a consistent scorer lately, averaging 14.4 points over his last five games, with a notable uptick at home where he's hitting just under 12 points per game. But what's really compelling is his history against the Knicks; he's averaged 12.8 points in their recent matchups, and at home, that number jumps to an impressive 19.2. Fox has hit the over on 12.5 points in 14 of his last 20 games and has been even more reliable at home, cashing in 15 out of 20. With the Spurs looking to build momentum, his role in the offense is crucial. Given the Knicks' defensive vulnerabilities, especially on the perimeter, expect Fox to assert himself and comfortably surpass that 12.5 mark today.

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Pick History & Track Record

De'Aaron Fox — 2024-25 season averages

Over 62 games in the 2024-25 season, De'Aaron Fox averaged 23.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists in 36.2 minutes per game, shooting 46.3% from the field and 31.0% from three-point range.

23.5
PPG
4.8
RPG
6.3
APG
1.5
SPG
0.4
BPG
36.2
MPG
46.3%
FG%
31.0%
3P%

De'Aaron Fox — recent role

Across his last 5 games, De'Aaron Fox has played 32.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

32.4
MPG (L5)
19.8
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

De'Aaron Fox — points hit rate

De'Aaron Fox has scored over 20.5 points in 39% of 342 career games.

o11.581%
o12.575%
o15.562%
o20.539%
o25.522%

De'Aaron Fox — home vs away scoring

At home De'Aaron Fox averages 25.8 points per game; on the road, 21.4. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

25.8
PPG at home
21.4
PPG on the road

De'Aaron Fox — scoring by opponent

De'Aaron Fox scores most against the LAL, averaging 26.2 points per game in that matchup.

26.2
LAL
25.9
SA
25.3
DAL
25.0
ATL
24.8
WSH
24.7
MIN

De'Aaron Fox — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, De'Aaron Fox has averaged 17.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
12 Marvs DAL4132911
10 Marvs DAL341448
9 Mar@ MIN272223
7 Mar@ SAC331648
4 Marvs BKN271537
2 Marvs OKC342044
1 Mar@ MEM352037
26 Feb@ HOU28733
25 Feb@ NO381539
23 Feb@ NO341375
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points Pending
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs Pending
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs Pending
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points Pending

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About This Player

De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for De'Aaron Fox is Over 12.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.9% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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