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The latest Bet Better model pick for De'Aaron Fox is Over 12.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +20.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:58AM UTC
NBA

De'Aaron Fox

San Antonio Spurs

+20.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 12.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+20.9% Edge
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX · Indoor
Sun 14 Jun, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.8%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+20.9%
Predicted Value
20.2 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points90.8%69.9%1.10+20.9%

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AI Analysis

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De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs) Over 12.5 Points (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As De'Aaron Fox steps onto the court at home against the New York Knicks, all signs point toward an explosive performance. He's been a consistent scorer lately, averaging 14.4 points over his last five games, with a notable uptick at home where he's hitting just under 12 points per game. But what's really compelling is his history against the Knicks; he's averaged 12.8 points in their recent matchups, and at home, that number jumps to an impressive 19.2. Fox has hit the over on 12.5 points in 14 of his last 20 games and has been even more reliable at home, cashing in 15 out of 20. With the Spurs looking to build momentum, his role in the offense is crucial. Given the Knicks' defensive vulnerabilities, especially on the perimeter, expect Fox to assert himself and comfortably surpass that 12.5 mark today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
17.4avg · last 10
L519.8Szn23.5Home25.8Away21.4Best60
14+94%
19+76%
24+45%
29+24%
34+5%
Game log vs O 23.5avg 17.4 · hi 32 · lo 7
1315720201516221432

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 17.4 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 23.5, best 60). He clears 24+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
23.9avg · last 10
L527.2Szn29.9Home32.3Away27.6Best67
20+90%
25+74%
30+45%
35+26%
40+6%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 23.9 · hi 43 · lo 10
18241027242224252243

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 23.9 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 29.9, best 67). He clears 30+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
21.6avg · last 10
L524.2Szn28.3Home30.2Away26.6Best63
18+90%
23+76%
28+53%
33+31%
38+10%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 21.6 · hi 41 · lo 10
20181023241820241841

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 21.6 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.3, best 63). He clears 28+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
28.1avg · last 10
L531.6Szn34.7Home36.7Away32.8Best70
25+90%
30+71%
35+45%
40+29%
45+10%
Game log vs O 34.5avg 28.1 · hi 52 · lo 13
25271330282528272652

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 28.1 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 34.7, best 70). He clears 35+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
4.2avg · last 10
L54.4Szn4.8Home4.4Away5.2Best13
1+100%
3+89%
5+55%
7+18%
9+8%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.2 · hi 9 · lo 2
7333434249

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 4.2 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.8, best 13). He clears 5+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
1.0avg · last 10
L50.4Szn1.5Home1.5Away1.5Best6
1+69%
2+35%
3+21%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1 · hi 6 · lo 0
1601001001

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 1.0 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.5, best 6). He clears 1+ in 69% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points 12.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 15.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -313 ✗ MISS
14 Jun 26 New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Points Pending

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About This Player

De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for De'Aaron Fox is Over 12.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.9% on this pick. Their next game is New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs on Sunday 14 June at Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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