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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sal Frelick is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +9.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Sal Frelick

MIL

+9.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -208 (1.48)
+9.7% Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri · Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul, 11:45PM
OUT
The Brewers placed Frelick on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right shoulder strain, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
updated Jul 18, 4:47PM UTC · 2d old
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Model Probability
77.3%
Implied Probability
67.6%
Model Edge
+9.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases77.3%—67.6%1.29+9.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Sal Frelick (MIL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-208)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cardinals host the Brewers, all eyes will be on Sal Frelick, but taking the under on his total bases feels like the savvy play here. While Frelick has shown flashes of talent, he’s struggled against the Cardinals’ pitching staff lately. St. Louis has been adept at limiting opposing hitters, especially at home, where their bullpen has been particularly stingy. Frelick’s recent form also suggests a dip; in his last few matchups against right-handed pitchers, he’s managed to scrape together less than 1.5 total bases consistently. With the Cardinals’ ace on the mound and their defense tightening up at Busch Stadium, Frelick may find it tough to find gaps or power through the lineup. Given the circumstances, betting the under on 1.5 total bases feels like a wise move as the Cards look to stifle Milwaukee's offense.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.517%

Sal Frelick MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Sal Frelick MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Sal Frelick MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.517%

Sal Frelick MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10

Sal Frelick MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -208 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -189 ✗ MISS
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sal Frelick (MIL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sal Frelick is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.7% on this pick. Their next game is Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday 9 July at Busch Stadium, St. Louis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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