Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Warren is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100. For the numbers: model probability 53%, implied 63%, edge -9.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Under 1.50 BBlanded 3 of the last 3
Under 4.50 SOlanded 3 of the last 3
Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.
Model updated Aug 25, 7:08PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-167 (1.60) · $100→$160
-9.8% Edge
Houston Astros
@
New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Tue 25 Aug, 11:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 905 of 1,834 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs HOU @ NYY
updated Aug 25, 11:05PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
53 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 52.7% · the book's price implies 62.5% · gap -9.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 52.7% | — | 62.5% | 1.90 | -9.8% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
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Will Warren (NYY) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-167)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
New York Yankees play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Will Warren (NYY) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-167). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -167 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.99 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Hit-rate ladder: SO
Will Warren has gone over 2.5 SO in 0% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
Will Warren (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Warren is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a slight edge of -9.8% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs New York Yankees on Tuesday 25 August at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.