SYSTEM STATUS: Online WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) WIN: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) RESULT: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154)
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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tommy Troy is Under 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored.
On the Batter - Runs Scored market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 81%, for a model edge of +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 12, 7:22AM UTC
MLB

Tommy Troy

MLB

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Runs Scored Under 0.5 -417 (1.24)
+1.6% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego
Fri 10 Jul, 1:40AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Troy (shoulder) won't undergo imaging and was called day-to-day by manager Torey Lovullo, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
updated Jul 12, 4:51AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
82.3%
Implied Probability
80.6%
Model Edge
+1.6%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Runs Scored82.3%80.6%1.22+1.6%

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Beat the closing line — our published picks in this player's games beat the closing line 0 of 30 times (0%), +38.9% avg CLV. Verified closing-line value.

AI Analysis

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Tommy Troy (NA) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Padres welcome the Diamondbacks to Petco Park, Tommy Troy finds himself in a challenging spot. While he's shown flashes of potential, recent trends suggest he may struggle to cross home plate tonight. The Padres boast a formidable pitching staff, and their bullpen has been particularly stingy, allowing an average of just 3.6 runs per game at home. Additionally, Troy’s recent at-bats have been less than inspiring, with a modest .220 average against left-handed pitching—an area where the Padres excel defensively. The Diamondbacks have also been inconsistent, and with the Padres’ starting pitcher bringing a solid strikeout rate, the odds of Troy notching a run look favorable. With an implied probability of over 80% for him to stay under 0.5 runs, it feels like a calculated risk to lean toward the 'under' for Troy tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)
Overall Hit Rate (3 picks) 66.7% (2/3)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -417 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -667 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Singles 1.5 Under -250 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tommy Troy is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. Across 3 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 66.7% (2/3). The latest model pick for Tommy Troy is Under 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres on Friday 10 July at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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