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The latest Bet Better model pick for Romy Gonzalez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +8.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 7:08PM UTC
MLB

Romy Gonzalez

MLB

+8.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -200 (1.50)
+8.7% Edge
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Fri 10 Jul, 11:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.4%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+8.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases75.4%—66.7%1.33+8.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Romy Gonzalez (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on July 10, 2026, all eyes will be on Romy Gonzalez and his ability to navigate New York's pitching staff. While Gonzalez has flashed potential, recent trends suggest he may struggle to clear the 1.5 total bases mark tonight. The Mets' pitching has been nothing short of exceptional, holding opponents to a measly .220 batting average over the last month. With a strikeout rate that’s been consistently above league average, Gonzalez may find himself in a tough spot against a lineup that’s been dominant at home. Moreover, Boston's recent inconsistency at the plate could further stifle Gonzalez’s opportunities to rack up bases. His average against lefties, which includes a matchup with a strong Mets starter, is hovering around .230 this season. With everything on the line, taking the under on Gonzalez’s total bases feels like the smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2055%
O 0.570%
O 1.530%

Romy Gonzalez MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 1.550%
O 2.520%

Romy Gonzalez MLB total bases: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
1.8avg H+R+RBI · L5
L2060%

Romy Gonzalez MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.8 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10

Romy Gonzalez MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Romy Gonzalez MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -200 ✓ HIT
08 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5 Over +111 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -185 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending

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About This Player

Romy Gonzalez is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Romy Gonzalez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.7% on this pick. Their next game is Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets on Friday 10 July at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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