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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nolan Jones is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 90%, for a model edge of +2.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Nolan Jones

CLE

+2.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -909 (1.11)
+2.9% Edge
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Sun 7 Sep, 4:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.0%
Implied Probability
90.1%
Model Edge
+2.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases93.0%—90.1%1.07+2.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Nolan Jones (CLE) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-909)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Nolan Jones' performance data strongly supports the Under 0.5 bet in the Batter Stolen Bases market. His last five games' overall stolen base average is only 0.2, indicating he rarely steals bases. This trend is even more pronounced in away games, where his stolen base average drops to zero. His history against the Tampa Bay Rays also suggests a low likelihood of stealing a base, with an average of only 0.2 stolen bases in the last five games. Furthermore, his current overall hit streak is zero, suggesting he is not in form at the plate. While he does have a 21-game hit streak in away games, without being on base, his chances of stealing are significantly reduced. Therefore, based on these statistics, the Under 0.5 bet is a good choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.8avg hits · L5
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Nolan Jones MLB hits: averaging 0.8 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg total bases · L5
O 1.510%
O 2.510%

Nolan Jones MLB total bases: averaging 1 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg H+R+RBI · L5

Nolan Jones MLB hits + runs + rbis: averaging 1 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.6avg singles · L5

Nolan Jones MLB singles: averaging 0.6 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - DoublesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg doubles · L5

Nolan Jones MLB doubles: averaging 0.2 doubles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg walks · L5
O 0.540%

Nolan Jones MLB walks: averaging 0.4 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Stolen BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg stolen bases · L5

Nolan Jones MLB stolen bases: averaging 0.2 stolen bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nolan Jones (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nolan Jones is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.9% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday 7 September at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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