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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nathan Eovaldi is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 92%, for a model edge of +6.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Nathan Eovaldi

TEX

+6.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1111 (1.09)
+6.6% Edge
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers
Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas · Indoor
Sat 23 Aug, 12:05AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
98.3%
Implied Probability
91.7%
Model Edge
+6.6%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed98.3%91.7%1.02+6.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Nathan Eovaldi's recent performance data strongly supports the Over 2.5 bet in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market. In his last five games, Eovaldi has consistently allowed more than 2.5 hits, with an average of 4.2 overall hits, and 5.8 at home. His performance against the Cleveland Guardians is even more telling, with an average of 8 hits allowed in the last five matchups. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, further reinforce this trend. Despite maintaining an average of 6 innings pitched, Eovaldi's hit allowance remains high, indicating a pattern of allowing hits regularly throughout his pitching duration. These stats collectively suggest a strong likelihood of Eovaldi allowing over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.530%
O 3.520%
O 4.510%

Nathan Eovaldi MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak10L2095%
O 2.5100%
O 3.590%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Nathan Eovaldi MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2050%
O 0.560%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Nathan Eovaldi MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.8avg earned runs · L5
L2050%

Nathan Eovaldi MLB earned runs: averaging 1.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
18.4avg outs · L5

Nathan Eovaldi MLB outs: averaging 18.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nathan Eovaldi is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.6% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers on Saturday 23 August at Globe Life Field, Arlington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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