Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nathan Eovaldi is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +15.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:36PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-161 (1.62) · $100→$162
+15.3% Edge
Baltimore Orioles
@
Texas Rangers
Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas · Indoor
Sat 8 Aug, 11:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
61.7%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 77.0% | — | 61.7% | 1.30 | +15.3% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 0/5 |
| Last 10 games | 0/10 |
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Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-161)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Texas Rangers play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-161). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -161 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.21 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.560%
O 3.550%
O 4.510%
O 5.510%
Nathan Eovaldi MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 2.5100%
O 3.590%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%
O 6.520%
Nathan Eovaldi MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted Nathan Eovaldi MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted 1.8avg earned runs · L5
L2050%
Nathan Eovaldi MLB earned runs: averaging 1.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Nathan Eovaldi MLB outs: averaging 18.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nathan Eovaldi is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.3% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers on Saturday 8 August at Globe Life Field, Arlington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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