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The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan Allen is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 95%, for a model edge of +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Logan Allen

CLE

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -2000 (1.05)
+3.9% Edge
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Thu 4 Sep, 11:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
98.2%
Implied Probability
95.2%
Model Edge
+3.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed98.2%—95.2%1.02+3.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Logan Allen (CLE) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-2000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Logan Allen for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is supported by his recent performance data. Allen's last five games reveal an average of 5.2 hits allowed overall, with this number increasing to 5.8 for away games. This trend surpasses the bet line of 2.5. Additionally, when facing the Tampa Bay Rays, his hits allowed average elevates to 7, further validating the bet. His innings pitched (IP) and outs averages also support this choice, as they suggest Allen is typically not able to prevent hits before reaching the bet line. Therefore, based on Allen's recent performances, this bet is a strong choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2080%
O 2.580%
O 3.550%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Logan Allen MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.540%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Logan Allen MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak7L2095%
O 0.590%
O 1.570%
O 2.540%
O 3.540%
O 4.510%

Logan Allen MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
2avg earned runs · L5
L2050%

Logan Allen MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
15.8avg outs · L5

Logan Allen MLB outs: averaging 15.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Logan Allen (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan Allen is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday 4 September at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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