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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kerry Carpenter is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On Batter - Total Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 80%, implied 66%, edge +14.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 1Blanded 8 of the last 10
Over 0.50 Hlanded 8 of the last 10
Over 0.50 Hlanded 8 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 26, 6:37PM UTC
MLB

Kerry Carpenter

MLB

+14.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -192 (1.52) · $100→$152
+14.7% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 10:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 933 of 1,879 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Carpenter (foot) will pause his rehab program after suffering a setback, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
updated Aug 18, 9:34PM UTC · 7d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
80 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.4% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +14.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases80.4%65.8%1.24+14.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Kerry Carpenter (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-192)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Detroit Tigers gear up to face the Kansas City Royals, all eyes will be on Kerry Carpenter, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases might be a stretch. Despite Carpenter’s flashes of power, he’s been battling inconsistency at the plate lately, hitting just .220 over the past two weeks. The Royals' pitching staff has also been surprisingly effective, with a collective ERA hovering around 3.60, particularly when facing left-handed hitters like Carpenter. On top of that, the Tigers' offense has struggled to generate consistent run production, ranking near the bottom in team batting average. When you consider Carpenter's recent slump and the Royals' ability to keep hitters in check, the under looks appealing. With projected total bases hovering around 0.8, there’s a strong case that Carpenter might fall short in this matchup. Don’t be surprised if he ends the night with just a single or less!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Kerry Carpenter is averaging 1.6 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.2 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

1.6
Hits
0.0
HR
0.2
RBI
0.6
Runs
0.0
Walks
0.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Kerry Carpenter has gone over 1.5 total bases in 33% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.533%
o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Kerry Carpenter is averaging 1.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.4 in away games, including his recent form against SEA.

1.6
Hits · Overall
1.4
Hits · Away
0.8
Hits · vs SEA
0.0
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Away
0.2
HR · vs SEA
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Batter - Total Bases Pending

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About This Player

Kerry Carpenter is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kerry Carpenter is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.7% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers on Thursday 23 July at Comerica Park, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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