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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kerry Carpenter is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 80%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +14.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 2:12PM UTC
MLB

Kerry Carpenter

MLB

+14.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -192 (1.52)
+14.7% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 10:40PM
OUT
Carpenter (foot) received a cortisone injection Tuesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
updated Jul 28, 8:56PM UTC · 8d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
80.4%
Implied Probability
65.8%
Model Edge
+14.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases80.4%65.8%1.24+14.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Kerry Carpenter (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-192)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Detroit Tigers gear up to face the Kansas City Royals, all eyes will be on Kerry Carpenter, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases might be a stretch. Despite Carpenter’s flashes of power, he’s been battling inconsistency at the plate lately, hitting just .220 over the past two weeks. The Royals' pitching staff has also been surprisingly effective, with a collective ERA hovering around 3.60, particularly when facing left-handed hitters like Carpenter. On top of that, the Tigers' offense has struggled to generate consistent run production, ranking near the bottom in team batting average. When you consider Carpenter's recent slump and the Royals' ability to keep hitters in check, the under looks appealing. With projected total bases hovering around 0.8, there’s a strong case that Carpenter might fall short in this matchup. Don’t be surprised if he ends the night with just a single or less!

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Kerry Carpenter MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.533%

Kerry Carpenter MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak7L2071%

Kerry Carpenter MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -192 ✗ MISS
21 Jul 26 Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -149 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -588 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits Pending

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About This Player

Kerry Carpenter is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kerry Carpenter is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.7% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers on Thursday 23 July at Comerica Park, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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