Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Framber Valdez is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +20.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:07PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Under 5.5
-154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+20.0% Edge
Detroit Tigers
@
Seattle Mariners
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington · Indoor
Thu 6 Aug, 8:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
60.6%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Hits Allowed | 80.6% | — | 60.6% | 1.24 | +20.0% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 4/10 |
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Framber Valdez (HOU) Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-154)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Seattle Mariners play Detroit Tigers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Framber Valdez (HOU) Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-154). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.49 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
Framber Valdez MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 2.570%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%
Framber Valdez MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted O 0.5100%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%
Framber Valdez MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Framber Valdez MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Framber Valdez (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Framber Valdez is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners on Thursday 6 August at T-Mobile Park, Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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