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The latest Bet Better model pick for Framber Valdez is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 91%, for a model edge of +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Framber Valdez

HOU

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -1000 (1.10)
+3.9% Edge
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 6:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.8%
Implied Probability
90.9%
Model Edge
+3.9%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks94.8%90.9%1.05+3.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Framber Valdez (HOU) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-1000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Framber Valdez for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed is a good choice based on his recent performance data. In the last five games, Valdez's overall average of walks allowed is 2.2, and his average walks allowed in away games is 1.2. Both these averages are above the line of 0.5, indicating a strong likelihood that he will allow at least one walk in this game. Furthermore, when playing against the Yankees, his average walks allowed increases to 4.5, suggesting an even higher probability of this outcome. His current hit streak, both overall and away, is 14 games, which shows consistency in his performance. Therefore, the statistical data suggests that Valdez allowing over 0.5 walks in this game is a probable outcome.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2090%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.560%
O 6.540%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Framber Valdez MLB strikeouts: cleared over 3.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak2L2080%
O 2.570%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Framber Valdez MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak14L2095%
O 0.5100%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Framber Valdez MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.8avg earned runs · L5

Framber Valdez MLB earned runs: averaging 2.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
16.8avg outs · L5
L2065%

Framber Valdez MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Framber Valdez (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Framber Valdez is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs New York Yankees on Saturday 9 August at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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