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The latest Bet Better model pick for Chris Sale is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 96%, for a model edge of +2.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC
MLB

Chris Sale

ATL

+2.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 1.5 -2500 (1.04)
+2.3% Edge
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Mon 22 Sep, 11:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
98.4%
Implied Probability
96.2%
Model Edge
+2.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed98.4%—96.2%1.02+2.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Chris Sale (ATL) Over 1.5 Hits Allowed (-2500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Chris Sale's performance data supports the bet on allowing over 1.5 hits in the upcoming game. His overall average hits allowed in the last five games is 6.2, well above the bet line. Even when considering his home game average, it's still at 5.6 hits. Furthermore, his hit streaks, both overall and at home, show a consistent trend of allowing hits. His performance against the Nationals also leans towards this bet, with an average of 5.3 hits allowed. While his innings pitched and outs averages suggest he's not often in the game for long, they still provide ample opportunity for the opposing team to score hits. Therefore, based on Sale's recent performance and his specific record against the Nationals, the Over 1.5 hits allowed is a statistically sound bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2080%
O 5.580%
O 6.550%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Chris Sale MLB strikeouts: cleared over 5.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak20L20100%
O 1.5100%
O 2.590%
O 3.590%
O 4.580%
O 5.560%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Chris Sale MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak2L2080%
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Chris Sale MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
3.2avg earned runs · L5
Streak6L2060%

Chris Sale MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 3.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
14avg outs · L5

Chris Sale MLB outs: averaging 14 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Chris Sale (ATL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chris Sale is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves on Monday 22 September at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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