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The latest Bet Better model pick for Chase Burns is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On Pitcher - Hits Allowed, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100. For the numbers: model probability 56%, implied 59%, edge -3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Under 4.50 Hlanded 4 of the last 4
Under 6.50 SOlanded 4 of the last 4
Under 5.50 SOlanded 4 of the last 4

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 24, 3:32PM UTC
MLB

Chase Burns

CIN

-3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Under 4.5 -145 (1.69) · $100→$169
-3.0% Edge
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Oracle Park, San Francisco, California · Outdoor
Tue 25 Aug, 1:45AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 902 of 1,825 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
56 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 56.1% · the book's price implies 59.2% · gap -3.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed56.1%—59.2%1.78-3.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds: Chase Burns Under 4.5 Pitcher - Hits Allowed (-145)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The game at Oracle Park should be interesting, with the San Francisco Giants facing off against the Cincinnati Reds. Chase Burns is pitching for the Reds, and he has a solid chance of keeping the Giants' hits low. Plus, they've only won three of their last ten games, so they might not be firing on all cylinders. However, they've been losing games by about 1.3 runs in their recent outings. This matchup looks pretty close, but with the Giants' struggles and Burns on the mound, betting on him to allow fewer than 4.5 hits makes sense. Just keep in mind the Reds' recent form could lead to a few surprises.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Chase Burns has gone over 2.5 SO in 0% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
o9.50%
o10.50%
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Aug 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under +108 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Pitcher - Hits Allowed 4.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
14 Aug 26 Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds Pitcher - Hits Allowed 4.5 Under -122 ✓ HIT
14 Aug 26 Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Chase Burns (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chase Burns is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of -3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants on Tuesday 25 August at Oracle Park, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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