Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Andrew Alvarez is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +27.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 8, 12:03PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Under 4.5
-108 (1.93)
+27.3% Edge
Cincinnati Reds
@
Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 10:45PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 468 of 843 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
51.8%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Hits Allowed | 79.1% | — | 51.8% | 1.26 | +27.3% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 5/5 |
| Last 10 games | 8/8 |
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Andrew Alvarez Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Washington Nationals play Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Andrew Alvarez Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-108). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.26 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
2 markets livePitcher - Hits AllowedUpcoming gameU 4.5 -108 Andrew Alvarez MLB hits allowed. Current line U 4.5 at -108.
Pitcher - Earned RunsUpcoming gameU 2.5 -128 Andrew Alvarez MLB earned runs. Current line U 2.5 at -128.
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
Andrew Alvarez MLB strikeouts: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Andrew Alvarez is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Andrew Alvarez is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.3% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals on Saturday 8 August at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.