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MLB predictions for Wednesday, September 23: Over 6.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

14 MLB games on Wednesday. The model's strongest pick is Over 6.5 runs, a LEAN-confidence call.

By Samantha Chen · Published Sep 22, 12:00 AM ET · Updated Sep 23, 11:31 PM ET

Written with our model's data and an AI writing assistant, checked against our rules. Meet our writers

These were our picks for Wednesday, September 23. See today's MLB predictions

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers

Wed Sep 23, 1:10 PM ET
Our pick: Over 8.5 runs+106

LEAN — about a 4 in 10 chance by our numbers

The Tigers and Nationals both have been scoring pretty well lately, with the Tigers winning 6 of their last 8 games at home.

Full Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers preview →

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Wed Sep 23, 1:35 PM ET
Our pick: Over 7.5 runs-105

LEAN — about a 5 in 10 chance by our numbers

The Baltimore Orioles have been scoring pretty well, especially at home where they've won five of their last eight games.

Full Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles preview →

Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants

Wed Sep 23, 3:45 PM ET
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants preview →

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

Wed Sep 23, 6:40 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies · Total Runs Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies preview →

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Wed Sep 23, 6:41 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates · Total Runs Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates preview →

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Wed Sep 23, 7:05 PM ET
Top pick: Over 6.5 runs-109

LEAN — about a 6 in 10 chance by our numbers

Full Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees preview →

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox

Wed Sep 23, 7:10 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox preview →

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

Wed Sep 23, 7:15 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves preview →

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Wed Sep 23, 7:40 PM ET
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs preview →

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Wed Sep 23, 7:40 PM ET
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · Total Runs Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals preview →

New York Mets at Texas Rangers

Wed Sep 23, 8:05 PM ET
New York Mets at Texas Rangers · Total Runs Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full New York Mets at Texas Rangers preview →

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Wed Sep 23, 8:40 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies preview →

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Wed Sep 23, 10:10 PM ET
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers · Total Runs Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers preview →

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Wed Sep 23, 10:10 PM ET
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners · Total Runs Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners preview →
How we pick these games

Our model looks at each team's recent form, injuries, rest and the price on offer, and works out how likely each result is. When its number says a bet is more likely to land than the price suggests, the bet makes our list. For each game we show the one main-line bet it likes most. HIGH means it lands about 6 or more times in 10 by our numbers. LEAN means about 4 to 6 times in 10. LONG-SHOT means less than 4 in 10: a bigger payout and a smaller chance. No pick is a sure thing.

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