Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:43AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Mon 17 Aug 2026, 10:05PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
75.6%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Baltimore Orioles Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +128

The model graded 70 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $228 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 75.6% across 45 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 17 Aug 2026, 10:05PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win49.4%
The price says41.8%
Best price+128
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Baltimore Orioles Lean49% chance +128
Moneyline Lean58% chance
Moneyline Lean41% chance
Spread Long-shot22% chance
Spread Long-shot9% chance
Spread Long-shot6% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean46% chance
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 84%
Batter - Singles × 9 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 87%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 12 props Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 81%
Batter - Total Bases × 4 props Highup to 89%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 84%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Baltimore Orioles · $100 returned $232

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Baltimore Orioles
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Zach Eflin SPOut

Probable pitcher

Chris Bassitt SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Rasmussen SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Brandon Young Pitcher - Walks
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Batter - Singles
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Batter - Hits
Ryan Vilade Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jackson Holliday BAL Batter - Singles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

Unlock every player prop for this game

The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L55-0Free board14-13

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L55-0Free board13-12

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L55-0

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
Unlock every pick
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6SDHome
W9–4SDHome
W3–0DETAway
L1–4DETAway
W4–1DETAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3ATHAway
L5–7STLAway
W8–7STLAway
W13–1STLAway
L1–3TBHome

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 2, Baltimore Orioles won 8.

DateTampa Bay RaysBaltimore OriolesWinner
Aug 2331Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 2223Baltimore Orioles
Aug 2135Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1776Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 16210Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1534Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1456Baltimore Orioles
May 27211Baltimore Orioles
May 2616Baltimore Orioles
May 2579Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Jordan Westburg 3BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Our Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays prediction for August 18, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 18, 2026 our model has run Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore Orioles +2.5 (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
45
Total Picks
75.6%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 ✗ MISS
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✗ MISS
17 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays +1 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Rays, or as Rays vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Monday 17 August 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 75.6% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 60 meetings on record
Baltimore Orioles 37–23 across the last 60 meetings · these games average 9.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles1–3Tampa Bay Rays
22 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles3–2Baltimore Orioles
21 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles5–3Baltimore Orioles
17 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays7–6Tampa Bay Rays
16 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays2–10Baltimore Orioles
15 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays3–4Baltimore Orioles
14 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays5–6Baltimore Orioles
27 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles11–2Baltimore Orioles
26 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles6–1Baltimore Orioles
25 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles9–7Baltimore Orioles

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 60 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.