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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:09PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Sun 20 Jul 2025, 4:10PM
14
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline)
For Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB), model win probability 66.4%, fair odds 1.51, book price +104, model edge +17.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 20 Jul 2025, 4:10PM at Tropicana Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+104
+ 13 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jesse Scholtens RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Steven Wilson RPOut
  • Steven Matz SPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nick Martinez SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Cedric Mullins BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Lowe TBR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ramon Laureano BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taylor Walls TBR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA4.0Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1Win rec6-6

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA4.0Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1ATS7-5

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
2.7implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA4.0Home L52-3vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.</p>

Colton Cowser (BAL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Colton Cowser for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a data-driven choice given his recent performance. Cowser's statistics show he hasn't stolen a base in his last five games overall, his last five away games, or his last five games against this opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays. This trend is consistent regardless of location or specific opposition. His current hit streak, both overall and away, does not seem to have influenced his stolen base rate. Additionally, the opposition's caught stealing (Cs) average is also zero, indicating Tampa Bay has not been active in catching runners, further suggesting a low stolen base environment. This consistent pattern of zero stolen bases makes the Under 0.5 bet a reasonable choice based on Cowser's recent performance.

Ramon Laureano (BAL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Ramon Laureano's performance data strongly suggests the Under 0.5 bet in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a good choice. His recent statistics show he has not been stealing bases consistently. In his last five games overall, his stolen bases average is zero. Even when considering only away games, his stolen bases average remains at zero. His average against the Tampa Bay Rays, the opponent team, is also zero. Despite a strong current hit streak both overall and away, these hits have not translated into stolen bases. Additionally, the opposition catcher's average of caught stealing (Cs) is irrelevant here as Laureano has not been attempting steals. Therefore, based on his recent performance, it is statistically unlikely that Laureano will steal a base in the upcoming game.

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 stolen bases bet for Gunnar Henderson is a solid choice considering his recent performance. His overall stolen base average for the last five games is zero, indicating he hasn't been successful in stealing bases recently. This trend continues when looking at his away game statistics, with an average of 0.4 stolen bases, and specifically against the Tampa Bay Rays, where his average drops to 0.2. Moreover, his current hit streak doesn't necessarily translate into stolen bases. Additionally, Tampa Bay Rays' catchers have been successful in preventing stolen bases, with zero successful steals against them over the last five games. Given these figures, the under 0.5 stolen bases bet for Gunnar Henderson has strong statistical backing.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
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Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 20 July 2025 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 14 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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