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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Cleveland Guardians

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 11:44AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Mon 9 Jun 2025, 10:40PM
0
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Player props & full board
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Rhett Lowder SP

Cleveland Guardians

  • Colin Holderman RPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut

Probable pitcher

Foster Griffin SP
Availability updated Sep 10, 2:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jose Ramirez CLE Batter - Stolen Bases
Andrew Abbott CIN Pitcher - Strikeouts
Will Benson CIN Batter - Stolen Bases
Lane Thomas CLE Batter - Stolen Bases
Jake Fraley CIN Batter - Stolen Bases

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1Free board19-18

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA2.8Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.0 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 10 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians — 0 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 10 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 9 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 2 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–9BALAway
W9–5BALAway
L4–6BALAway
W3–2DETHome
L0–6DETHome
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3LADAway
L3–6LADAway
W12–8MILHome
W5–3MILHome
L7–10MILHome

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: Cleveland Guardians won 7, Cincinnati Reds won 2.

DateCleveland GuardiansCincinnati RedsWinner
Jul 2961Cleveland Guardians
Jul 2802Cincinnati Reds
Jul 2865Cleveland Guardians
May 17103Cleveland Guardians
May 1674Cleveland Guardians
May 1567Cincinnati Reds
Mar 2282Cleveland Guardians
Mar 1886Cleveland Guardians
Feb 2142Cleveland Guardians

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Colin Holderman RPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Winning baseball bets for Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like TJ Friedl. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.

TJ Friedl (CIN) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on TJ Friedl for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is backed by his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Friedl's average stolen bases, both overall and away, stand at 0.4, which is under the line set at 0.5. His performance against the opposition also supports the under bet, with an average of 0.2 stolen bases in the last five games. Additionally, Friedl's current hit streak is at zero, both overall and away, which further reduces the likelihood of him stealing a base. Furthermore, there has been no instance of Friedl being caught stealing in the recent games, suggesting a conservative approach in his base running. These statistics collectively indicate a lower probability of Friedl stealing a base in the upcoming game, making the under bet a statistically sound choice.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Monday 9 June 2025 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 32 meetings on record
Cleveland Guardians 17–15 across the last 32 meetings · these games average 8.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
29 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds1–6Cleveland Guardians
28 Jul 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds2–0Cincinnati Reds
17 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians10–3Cleveland Guardians
16 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians7–4Cleveland Guardians
15 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians6–7Cincinnati Reds
22 Mar 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians8–2Cleveland Guardians
18 Mar 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds6–8Cleveland Guardians
17 Mar 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds6–8Cleveland Guardians
21 Feb 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians4–2Cleveland Guardians
11 Jun 2025Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians11–2Cleveland Guardians

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 32 meetings on file.

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