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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Chicago White Sox

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 26, 4:08PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
12
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Tampa Bay Rays -2 Spread +220

The model graded 32 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $320 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 16 Apr 2026, 6:10PM at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win45.3%
The price says31.3%
Best price+220
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2 Lean45% chance +220
Spread Long-shot36% chance
Spread Long-shot32% chance
Spread Long-shot28% chance
Spread Lean50% chance
Total Runs High64% chance
Spread Lean55% chance
Total Runs High72% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Batter - Singles × 2 props Highup to 84%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 5 props Highup to 100%
Batter - Walks × 2 props Highup to 99%
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 84%
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Highup to 73%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 933 of 1,879 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Tampa Bay Rays
+3.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 12 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,052+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Casey Legumina SP

Chicago White Sox

  • Chris Murphy RPOut
  • Huascar Brazoban RPOut
  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Kyle Teel COut
  • Davis Martin SPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Probable pitcher

Anthony Kay SP
Availability updated Aug 26, 1:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Chandler Simpson TBR Batter - Singles
Chandler Simpson TBR Batter - Stolen Bases
Richie Palacios STL Batter - Walks
Chandler Simpson TBR Batter - Hits
Munetaka Murakami Batter - Walks

+ 12 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago White SoxNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.8Home L51-4vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Chicago White Sox moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago White Sox run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.8Home L51-4vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Chicago White Sox spread form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Chicago White Sox total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago White Sox team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.8Home L51-4vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Chicago White Sox team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 32 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox — 20 on the game itself and 12 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
12
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 32 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 31 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox — recent results

Chicago White Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of their last 5.

Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–7TEXHome
L2–11TEXHome
W2–1NYMHome
L5–10NYMHome
W6–4NYMHome
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4DETAway
W4–1DETAway
W3–1BALAway
L2–3BALAway
L3–5BALAway

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Chicago White Sox won 2, Tampa Bay Rays won 4.

DateChicago White SoxTampa Bay RaysWinner
Aug 291Chicago White Sox
Aug 101Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 3161Chicago White Sox
Apr 1635Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1538Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1458Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Chris Murphy RPOUT
Huascar Brazoban RPOUT
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Kyle Teel COUT
Davis Martin SPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Chicago White Sox playing Tampa Bay Rays. Featuring picks like NA props. Analysis includes same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Jake Fraley (SEA) Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the White Sox host the Rays on Thursday, all eyes will be on Jake Fraley and his ability to swipe bases. However, the stats point toward a more cautious night for him. While Fraley has speed, he’s had a tough time against the White Sox’s arms, particularly facing pitchers adept at holding runners close. The White Sox, boasting a solid defense, have limited stolen bases significantly this season, allowing just a handful per game. In fact, their catchers have been particularly effective at gunning down would-be base-stealers. With Fraley likely to find himself in tight situations, it’s hard to see him successfully stealing multiple bases against this formidable defense. Considering his recent performances and the White Sox's stingy approach in this department, betting on him to go under 1.5 stolen bases feels like a smart play. With a high implied probability backing this choice, it’s one that makes sense in this matchup.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Sox, or as Sox vs Rays. The most recent game between them was Thursday 16 April 2026 at Guaranteed Rate Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Tampa Bay Rays 4–2 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays1–9Chicago White Sox
1 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays1–0Tampa Bay Rays
31 Jul 2026Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays1–6Chicago White Sox
16 Apr 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox3–5Tampa Bay Rays
15 Apr 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox3–8Tampa Bay Rays
14 Apr 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox5–8Tampa Bay Rays
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