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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Chicago Cubs

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 6:03AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 3 Aug 2025, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 5.5 Team Total +285

The model graded 25 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $385 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 3 Aug 2025, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.5%
The price says26.0%
Best price+285
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 5.5 Lean44% chance +285
Team Total Lean58% chance
Team Total High98% chance
Moneyline Lean51% chance
Team Total Long-shot35% chance
Spread Lean51% chance
Team Total High98% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Team Total Long-shot24% chance
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 76%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Pete Alonso 1BDay-to-day
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Chris Bassitt SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Shota Imanaga SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 11:30PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ian Happ CHC Batter - Hits
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Stolen Bases
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases
Kyle Tucker CHC Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 5 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2Free board12-10

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2Free board14-13

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
3.3runs we expect
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 1 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–7CINHome
W17–5CINHome
L8–10CINHome
L4–5ARIAway
L0–2ARIAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3ATHAway
W8–5ATHAway
W4–3ATHAway
L5–7STLAway
W8–7STLAway

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Baltimore Orioles.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game6.84.0
Hits / game10.65.6
Home runs / game2.22.2
Walks drawn / game2.42.8
Batter K / game9.28.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.65.4
Pitching K / game8.05.4
Walks allowed / game3.83.6
L5 record3-23-2

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 2, Baltimore Orioles won 1.

DateChicago CubsBaltimore OriolesWinner
Jul 923Baltimore Orioles
Jul 897Chicago Cubs
Jul 752Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Pete Alonso 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Deep dive into Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Ian Happ. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 7 Total Runs (-182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Over 7' bet for the Cubs vs Orioles game is a solid choice based on the teams' recent scoring records. The Cubs have been prolific, averaging 6.8 runs in their last five games, significantly above the line. The Orioles, while less potent with an average of 4 runs, still contribute to a combined average that surpasses the line. Additionally, both teams have demonstrated batting strength, with the Cubs averaging 10.6 hits and the Orioles 5.6. The Cubs' home run average of 2.2 also boosts the potential for high scores. Furthermore, both teams have been allowing a considerable amount of runs recently, with the Cubs and Orioles giving up an average of 5.2 and 4.2 runs respectively in their last five games. This implies weak defense, which further increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Sunday 3 August 2025 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Chicago Cubs 9–3 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 7.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles3–2Baltimore Orioles
8 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles7–9Chicago Cubs
7 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles2–5Chicago Cubs
3 Aug 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs5–3Chicago Cubs
2 Aug 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs3–4Baltimore Orioles
1 Aug 2025Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs1–0Chicago Cubs
11 Jul 2024Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles0–8Chicago Cubs
10 Jul 2024Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles0–4Chicago Cubs
9 Jul 2024Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles2–9Chicago Cubs
18 Jun 2023Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs3–6Baltimore Orioles

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

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