Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Chicago Cubs

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:08PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 3 Aug 2025, 6:20PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 6.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs (MLB), model win probability 97.6%, fair odds 1.02, book price -370, model edge +18.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 3 Aug 2025, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Under
1.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Jameson Taillon SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 3:47AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 25 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability25 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ian Happ CHC Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kyle Tucker CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2Win rec5-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2ATS8-7

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
4.0implied team total
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Baltimore Orioles.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game6.84.0
Hits / game10.65.6
Home runs / game2.22.2
Walks drawn / game2.42.8
Batter K / game9.28.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.65.4
Pitching K / game8.05.4
Walks allowed / game3.83.6
L5 record3-23-2

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Ian Happ. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.</p>

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 7 Total Runs (-182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Over 7' bet for the Cubs vs Orioles game is a solid choice based on the teams' recent scoring records. The Cubs have been prolific, averaging 6.8 runs in their last five games, significantly above the line. The Orioles, while less potent with an average of 4 runs, still contribute to a combined average that surpasses the line. Additionally, both teams have demonstrated batting strength, with the Cubs averaging 10.6 hits and the Orioles 5.6. The Cubs' home run average of 2.2 also boosts the potential for high scores. Furthermore, both teams have been allowing a considerable amount of runs recently, with the Cubs and Orioles giving up an average of 5.2 and 4.2 runs respectively in their last five games. This implies weak defense, which further increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 6 Total Runs (-294)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 6' total runs in the Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles game is a strong choice given the teams' recent scoring records. The Cubs' last five games have seen an average of 6.8 runs, exceeding the line. This is supported by their impressive batting average of 10.6 hits per game. The Orioles, while not as prolific, average 4 runs per game, contributing to a combined average that surpasses the line. Additionally, both teams have a high average of home runs, with the Cubs at 2.2 and the Orioles at 2.2 overall, which can significantly increase the total score. Although the Orioles' away runs average is lower, the Cubs' allowance of an average 5.2 runs at home should compensate. These factors all point to a high-scoring game, making the 'Over 6' bet a statistically sound choice.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-143)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Over 7.5' bet for the Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles game is a solid choice given the recent scoring trends of both teams. The Cubs have been particularly potent at home, averaging 6.8 runs per game in their last five games. Additionally, they have been hitting well, averaging 10.6 hits and 2.2 home runs per game. On the other hand, the Orioles have been struggling defensively, allowing an average of 5.8 runs in their last five games. Despite their offensive struggles on the road, averaging only 1.8 runs, they are facing a Cubs team that has allowed an average of 5.2 runs in their last five home games. Therefore, the combined offensive potency of the Cubs and the defensive weaknesses of both teams suggest a high likelihood of a total score exceeding 7.5 runs.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-250)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Over 6.5' bet for the Total Runs in the Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles game is a good choice based on both teams' recent offensive and defensive performance. The Cubs have averaged 6.8 runs per game in their last five home games, which alone is close to surpassing the line. The Orioles, while not as strong offensively, have contributed an average of 4 runs in their last five games. Defensively, both teams have allowed a significant number of runs, with the Cubs and Orioles allowing an average of 5.2 and 4.2 runs respectively in their last five games. This suggests that both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The high batting averages and home runs also support the potential for a high-scoring game. Therefore, the statistical data supports the likelihood of a combined score of more than 6.5 runs.

Ian Happ (CHC) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Ian Happ for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice given his recent performance. Happ's overall average hits in the last five games is 2.2, which is significantly higher than the line of 0.5. This indicates a strong likelihood of him achieving at least one hit in the upcoming game. Additionally, Happ's average hits at home is 1.8, further supporting the probability of him making a hit. His current home hit streak is at 3 games, showing consistency in his performance at home. While his average hits against the Orioles is lower at 0.6, it still exceeds the line, suggesting he's likely to make a hit. Overall, the data suggests that Happ is performing well, particularly at home, and is likely to continue this trend in the upcoming game.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 8.5 Total Runs (+103)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Over 8.5' bet for the Total Runs in the Cubs vs Orioles game seems promising due to both teams' recent scoring and conceding trends. The Cubs have averaged 6.8 runs in their last five games, while the Orioles have allowed an average of 5.8 runs in their last five outings. This suggests the Cubs could potentially score above the line alone. Additionally, the Orioles have averaged 4 runs in their last five games, and the Cubs have conceded an average of 4.8 runs, adding to the likelihood of a high scoring game. Furthermore, the Cubs' batting average of 10.6 hits and the Orioles' weaker pitching stats, with an average of only 5.4 strikeouts, further support the potential for a score above the 8.5 line. This data-driven analysis suggests a high probability of a combined score exceeding the line.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks