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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Chicago Cubs

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:30PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 3 Aug 2025, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 6.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 25 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $126 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 97.6%, fair odds 1.02, book price -385, model edge +18.3%. Tip-off Sun 3 Aug 2025, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Under
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ian Happ CHC Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kyle Tucker CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3Free board12-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3Free board13-9

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L52-3

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–2KCAway
W6–4KCAway
L3–6KCAway
W3–2TORHome
W5–1LADHome
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5TEXAway
L1–2TEXAway
L1–5TEXAway
L1–4LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Baltimore Orioles.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game6.84.0
Hits / game10.65.6
Home runs / game2.22.2
Walks drawn / game2.42.8
Batter K / game9.28.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.65.4
Pitching K / game8.05.4
Walks allowed / game3.83.6
L5 record3-23-2

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 2, Baltimore Orioles won 1.

DateChicago CubsBaltimore OriolesWinner
Jul 923Baltimore Orioles
Jul 897Chicago Cubs
Jul 752Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Chris Bassitt SPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Deep dive into Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Ian Happ. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles : Over 7 Total Runs (-182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Over 7' bet for the Cubs vs Orioles game is a solid choice based on the teams' recent scoring records. The Cubs have been prolific, averaging 6.8 runs in their last five games, significantly above the line. The Orioles, while less potent with an average of 4 runs, still contribute to a combined average that surpasses the line. Additionally, both teams have demonstrated batting strength, with the Cubs averaging 10.6 hits and the Orioles 5.6. The Cubs' home run average of 2.2 also boosts the potential for high scores. Furthermore, both teams have been allowing a considerable amount of runs recently, with the Cubs and Orioles giving up an average of 5.2 and 4.2 runs respectively in their last five games. This implies weak defense, which further increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Sunday 3 August 2025 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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