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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Touk Miller is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 54%, implied 51%, edge +3.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 6:38PM UTC
AFL

Touk Miller

Gold Coast SUNS

+3.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -102 (1.98) · $100→$198
+3.2% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 6 Mar, 9:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
23.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 53.7% · the book's price implies 50.5% · gap +3.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals53.7%50.5%1.86+3.2%

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AI Analysis

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Touk Miller (Gold Coast SUNS) Under 23.5 Disposals (-102)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Touk Miller's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure for the Gold Coast Suns, especially in their home games. While he's been solid with an average of 21.8 disposals in his last five home games, his performance against Geelong hasn't quite hit that mark, averaging 24 disposals in their last five encounters. Miller's recent contested possessions average of 8.4 and turnovers at 2.6 also suggest he may face challenges against Geelong's pressure. With an impressive Metres Gained average of 352.8 in his home games, he's been influential but might struggle to reach the 23.5 disposal line sportsbet has set, making the Under a smart play for this matchup at People First Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Touk Miller averaged 26.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

26.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.2
Marks
4.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Touk Miller recorded 31 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond31052
17 Aug 24Melbourne28052
6 Jul 24North Melbourne14023
29 Jun 24Collingwood31025
23 Jun 24Fremantle33086
8 Jun 24St Kilda14112
2 Jun 24Essendon28125
25 May 24Carlton21005
16 May 24Geelong Cats32026
11 May 24North Melbourne29145
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Touk Miller (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Touk Miller is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast Suns on Friday 6 March at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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