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The latest Bet Better model pick for Touk Miller is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 54%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +3.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:39AM UTC
AFL

Touk Miller

Gold Coast SUNS

+3.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -102 (1.98)
+3.2% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 6 Mar, 9:05AM
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Model Probability
53.7%
Implied Probability
50.5%
Model Edge
+3.2%
Predicted Value
23.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals53.7%—50.5%1.86+3.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Touk Miller (Gold Coast SUNS) Under 23.5 Disposals (-102)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Touk Miller's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure for the Gold Coast Suns, especially in their home games. While he's been solid with an average of 21.8 disposals in his last five home games, his performance against Geelong hasn't quite hit that mark, averaging 24 disposals in their last five encounters. Miller's recent contested possessions average of 8.4 and turnovers at 2.6 also suggest he may face challenges against Geelong's pressure. With an impressive Metres Gained average of 352.8 in his home games, he's been influential but might struggle to reach the 23.5 disposal line sportsbet has set, making the Under a smart play for this matchup at People First Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 22.5
23avg disposals L5
Home25.6vs Western Bulldogs27.8Season best33
O 20.580%
O 21.570%
O 22.560%
O 23.550%
O 24.530%
O 25.520%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 26.1 · hi 33 · lo 14
29322128143331142831

Touk Miller has gone over 22.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23 disposals, best 33).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.2avg goals L5
Home0.4vs Western Bulldogs0Season best1
O 0.530%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
1001100000

Touk Miller has gone over 0.5 goals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.2 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 23.5 Under -102 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Touk Miller (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Touk Miller is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast Suns on Friday 6 March at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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