Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Malcolm Rosas is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +12.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:35AM UTC
AFL
Malcolm Rosas
Gold Coast SUNS
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-213 (1.47)
+12.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns
@
St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 25 May, 6:40AM
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Implied Probability
68.0%
Predicted Value
1.2 Goals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 80.6% | — | 68.0% | 1.24 | +12.6% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 6/10 |
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Malcolm Rosas (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-213)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Malcolm Rosas has been consistent in his last five away games, averaging 1.2 goals with a 35.0% goal accuracy. His involvement in scores with an average of 4 per game indicates a strong offensive contribution. With an average of 1.6 shots on goal and 2.2 inside 50s per game, Rosas is actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. Considering his recent form and the model's prediction of 1.2 goals for this game, there's a 12.6% edge to him scoring. The bet on Malcolm Rosas to Score Anytime is well-supported by his strong offensive capabilities and consistent goal-scoring record.
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Betting angles
Markets & formGoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 0.5
0.6avg goals L5
Home2.4vs Adelaide Crows0.7Season best4
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
Malcolm Rosas has gone over 0.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 4).
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Malcolm Rosas (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Malcolm Rosas is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 25 May at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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