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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mac Andrew is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +0.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Mac Andrew

Gold Coast SUNS

+0.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -227 (1.44)
+0.9% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+0.9%
Predicted Value
18.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%69.4%1.42+0.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Mac Andrew (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Mac Andrew hitting the Over 15.5 disposals mark against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, he's been a ball magnet, averaging a solid 16 disposals per game, comfortably exceeding the line. His recent form shows a knack for finding teammates with an average of 5.6 handballs and covering ground with 10.4 kicks, totaling 335.4 meters gained on average. Facing the Crows, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 14.5 disposals, Mac Andrew's ability to impact the game both through contested possessions and uncontested ball control bodes well for him to surpass the 15.5 mark. With a current hit streak and a reliable 84.6% disposal efficiency, backing Mac Andrew to shine in this matchup looks like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 19.5
19.2avg disposals L5
Home21.8vs Western Bulldogs14Season best25
O 17.560%
O 18.560%
O 19.560%
O 20.550%
O 21.550%
O 22.530%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 11.2 · hi 16 · lo 7
11101610141581378

Mac Andrew has gone over 19.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.2 disposals, best 25).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
12 Jun 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
12 Jun 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
12 Jun 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Mac Andrew (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mac Andrew is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 11 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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