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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mac Andrew is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +0.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 10:19PM UTC
AFL

Mac Andrew

Gold Coast SUNS

+0.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+0.9% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+0.9%
Predicted Value
18.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%—69.4%1.42+0.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Mac Andrew (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Mac Andrew hitting the Over 15.5 disposals mark against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, he's been a ball magnet, averaging a solid 16 disposals per game, comfortably exceeding the line. His recent form shows a knack for finding teammates with an average of 5.6 handballs and covering ground with 10.4 kicks, totaling 335.4 meters gained on average. Facing the Crows, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 14.5 disposals, Mac Andrew's ability to impact the game both through contested possessions and uncontested ball control bodes well for him to surpass the 15.5 mark. With a current hit streak and a reliable 84.6% disposal efficiency, backing Mac Andrew to shine in this matchup looks like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mac Andrew averaged 14.3 disposals, 0.5 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

14.3
Disposals
0.5
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mac Andrew has cleared 11.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.590%
o12.580%
o14.580%
o16.550%
o18.540%
o20.520%
o22.520%
o23.520%
o25.510%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mac Andrew is averaging 18.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.4
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Mac Andrew recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond8131
17 Aug 24Melbourne7010
10 Aug 24Essendon13452
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles8332
27 Jul 24Brisbane Lions150101
20 Jul 24GWS GIANTS14062
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide10043
6 Jul 24North Melbourne16152
29 Jun 24Collingwood10042
23 Jun 24Fremantle11064
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
12 Jun 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jun 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jun 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mac Andrew (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mac Andrew is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 11 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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