Mac Andrew (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-213)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Mac Andrew shapes as a solid play here, with the model projecting 18.1 disposals against a line of 15.5 — a 2.6-disposal buffer that generates a 2.3% edge over the implied 68% probability baked into the $1.47 price. His L5 away games average of 16.0 disposals already clears the line on its own, built on a reliable mix of 10.4 kicks and 5.6 handballs with an impressive 84.6% disposal efficiency and 335 metres gained per game. The concern is his L5 record against Adelaide specifically, where he's averaged just 14.5 disposals away — marginally below the line. That said, his overall L5 sits at 19.2 disposals, he's hit this line in three straight games, and his intercept work (6.0 per game away) suggests he generates plenty of ball off the back of stoppages. The model's edge is modest but real — worth a measured play.