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The latest Bet Better model pick for Joel Jeffrey is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 71%, implied 88%, edge +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:44PM UTC
AFL

Joel Jeffrey

Gold Coast SUNS

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+6.7% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
95 in 100
Predicted
19.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 95.2% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +6.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.2%71.2%88.5%1.40+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the disposals market, Joel Jeffrey stands out as a prime target for the Over 11.5 line. Despite his recent away game averages sitting at 16 disposals, Jeffrey's consistency shines through with a solid L5 performance against today's opponents, the GWS Giants, averaging 15.5 disposals. His ability to cover the ground efficiently is evident in his 80.8% disposal efficiency in away games, showcasing his composure under pressure. With an average of 11.2 kicks and 4.8 handballs per away game, Jeffrey is not just a ball-watcher but a playmaker who can impact the game significantly. Factor in his knack for gaining meters (341.8 average) and his recent form against the Giants, and betting on Joel Jeffrey to surpass 11.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this clash at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Joel Jeffrey averaged 16.6 disposals, 0.1 goals and 3.7 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

16.6
Disposals
0.1
Goals
3.7
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (2 Aug 24 vs West Coast Eagles), Joel Jeffrey recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles8010
27 Jul 24Brisbane Lions17041
20 Jul 24GWS GIANTS7000
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide20051
6 Jul 24North Melbourne16024
29 Jun 24Collingwood20061
23 Jun 24Fremantle9051
8 Jun 24St Kilda290122
2 Jun 24Essendon18061
25 May 24Carlton14001
Quick answers:How many disposals does Joel Jeffrey average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 11.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 12.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 13.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Joel Jeffrey is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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