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The latest Bet Better model pick for Joel Jeffrey is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:25PM UTC
AFL

Joel Jeffrey

Gold Coast SUNS

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+6.7% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.2%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+6.7%
Predicted Value
19.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.2%—88.5%1.05+6.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the disposals market, Joel Jeffrey stands out as a prime target for the Over 11.5 line. Despite his recent away game averages sitting at 16 disposals, Jeffrey's consistency shines through with a solid L5 performance against today's opponents, the GWS Giants, averaging 15.5 disposals. His ability to cover the ground efficiently is evident in his 80.8% disposal efficiency in away games, showcasing his composure under pressure. With an average of 11.2 kicks and 4.8 handballs per away game, Jeffrey is not just a ball-watcher but a playmaker who can impact the game significantly. Factor in his knack for gaining meters (341.8 average) and his recent form against the Giants, and betting on Joel Jeffrey to surpass 11.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this clash at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 13.5
13.8avg disposals L5
Away16vs GWS GIANTS15.5Season best29
O 11.560%
O 12.560%
O 13.560%
O 14.540%
O 15.540%
O 16.540%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 15.8 · hi 29 · lo 7
14182992016207178

Joel Jeffrey has gone over 13.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 13.8 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 11.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 12.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 13.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Joel Jeffrey is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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