On Thursday 1 October 2026, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Matteo Berrettini in tennis. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Matteo Berrettini to win the match, priced at +130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini: Matteo Berrettini to win the match (+130)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Matteo Berrettini at Japan Open on Thursday 1 October 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Matteo Berrettini wins the match. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. In their last five matches, Berrettini's serve stats are impressive: a first serve percentage of 59.8%, winning 79.6% of first serve points and 52.8% on second serves, translating to a solid overall serve points won rate of 68.5%. Additionally, Berrettini's break point save percentage stands at 59.4%, showcasing his resilience under pressure. In contrast, Davidovich Fokina has a win rate of just 40% over his last five matches, indicating a dip in form. Berrettini's higher ace rate (9.6%) and lower double fault rate (2.9%) further enhance his service reliability.
That is how our model reads Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Matteo Berrettini. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.