On Wednesday 9 September 2026, Liverpool play Fulham in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 7.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 7.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the narrative leans heavily towards a low-scoring affair. Liverpool's recent home performances have seen them average just 1.8 goals, while their opponents have managed a mere 1 goal per game against them. Fulham's away struggles are glaring; they've averaged a dismal 0.2 goals in their last five games on the road. With both teams struggling for consistent offensive output—each team recording an xG of zero in their last matches—the stage is set for a grind. Liverpool's home fixtures have shown a tendency for physicality, with high foul counts indicating a likely disruption in flow. This match feels ripe for an underwhelming scoreline, making the under 7.5 total goals a compelling pick. The implied probability here strongly suggests that a scorefest is highly unlikely.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Fulham +4.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the recent form paints an intriguing picture. The Reds have struggled at home, managing just one win in their last five, while Fulham's away woes have been palpable, scoring a mere 0.2 goals per game on the road lately. However, consider the context: Liverpool's defense has been shaky, allowing 1.8 goals on average at Anfield, while Fulham has been resilient, even if their scoring is lacking. With Liverpool's overall expected goals (xG) hovering around 0 in recent matches, it’s hard to see them blowing Fulham away by more than four goals, particularly given Liverpool's tendency to concede. Hence, taking Fulham to cover a +4.5 handicap seems prudent. Fulham may not pull off a win, but a stout performance could keep them within striking distance, making this handicap a savvy play on Saturday.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-3333)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing As Liverpool prepares to host Fulham, the total goals market presents an intriguing scenario, especially with the line set at 6.5. Recent form suggests a low-scoring affair is likely. Liverpool, despite their attacking prowess, has averaged just 1.8 goals per game at home over the last five matches, while Fulham's away struggles have seen them net a mere 0.2 goals recently. Fulham’s xG numbers are equally concerning, indicating they’re struggling to create quality chances. With Liverpool's defense tightening up, having allowed just one goal per home game on average, and Fulham's inability to find the net, it’s hard to see this game becoming a goal fest. Given the current trends and both teams’ scoring averages, betting on under 6.5 total goals feels not just safe but almost inevitable.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Fulham. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.